EverForecast hydrologic output for April 2020: a six-month water stage forecast for the Greater Everglades
Dates
Publication Date
2020-06-12
Start Date
2020-04-13
End Date
2020-10-12
Citation
Haider, S.M., Romañach, S.S., Pearlstine, L.G., Beerens, J.M., Reynolds, G., McKelvy, J.M., and Suir, K.J., 2020, EverForecast hydrologic output for April 2020: a six-month water stage forecast for the Greater Everglades: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9UARKTV.
Summary
Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way, using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational water stage forecast providing 6-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Everglades National Park, Big Cypress Seminole Indian Reservation, and Miccosukee Federal Indian Reservation and Leased Lands. The forecast [...]
Summary
Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way, using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational water stage forecast providing 6-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Everglades National Park, Big Cypress Seminole Indian Reservation, and Miccosukee Federal Indian Reservation and Leased Lands. The forecast provided here starts on April 13, 2020 and ends on October 12, 2020. It includes the central tendency from the spatial position analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation outputs and processes to generate these data.
Scientists can use these simulations as inputs in ecological models to create forecasts for species of interest. Water operations managers can use these data to evaluate probable ecological and hydrologic conditions and make better-informed decisions for conservation management purposes. By providing the output data and processing steps for the April forecast, we share the workflow and steps which can be reproduced for any time period.
