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Ross K Meentemeyer

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Policy-relevant flood risk modeling must capture interactions between physical and social processes to accurately project impacts from scenarios of sea level rise and inland flooding due to climate change. Here we simultaneously model urban growth, flood hazard change, and adaptive response using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) version 3 framework (Sanchez et al., 2023). FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections...
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We simulated future patterns of urban growth using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES; Meentemeyer et al., 2013) version 2 framework. FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections that predict urban growth under a Status Quo scenarios of growth. We computed each scenario for 50 stochastic iterations from 2020 through 2100 at annual time steps.
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Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have shown the impacts of urban planning and climate change separately, but little attention has been given to their combined impact on long-term urban water demand forecasting. Here we coupled land and climate change projections with empirically-derived coefficient estimates of urban water use (sum of public supply, industrial, and domestic use) to forecast water demand under scenarios of future population densities and climate warming. We simulated two scenarios of urban growth from 2012 to 2065 using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) framework. FUTURES...
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