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  7. FUTURES v2: Status Quo Projections of Future Patterns of Urbanization Across the Conterminous United States from 2020 to 2100

FUTURES v2: Status Quo Projections of Future Patterns of Urbanization Across the Conterminous United States from 2020 to 2100

Dates

Publication Date
Start Date
2020
End Date
2100

Citation

Petrasova, A., Sanchez, G.M., Lawrimore, M.A., Vogler, J.B., Collins, E.L., Petras, V., Harper, T., Butzler, E., and Meentemeyer, R.K., 2023, FUTURES v2: Status Quo Projections of Future Patterns of Urbanization Across the Conterminous United States from 2020 to 2100: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P94N3ICH.

Summary

We simulated future patterns of urban growth using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES; Meentemeyer et al., 2013) version 2 framework. FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections that predict urban growth under a Status Quo scenarios of growth. We computed each scenario for 50 stochastic iterations from 2020 through 2100 at annual time steps.

Contacts

Point of Contact :
Georgina M Sanchez Salas
Originator :
Anna Petrasova, Georgina M Sanchez Salas, Margaret Lawrimore, John Vogler, Elyssa L Collins, Vaclav Petras, Truffaut Harper, Emma Butzler, Ross K Meentemeyer
Metadata Contact :
Georgina M Sanchez Salas
Publisher :
U.S. Geological Survey
USGS Mission Area :
Ecosystems
SDC Data Owner :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Distributor :
U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase

Attached Files

Click on title to download individual files attached to this item.

Metadata_FUTURESv2.xml
Original FGDC Metadata
View 		41.51 KB application/fgdc+xml

“Probability Decadal New Development” 		7.68 GB application/x-zip-compressed

“Projections Annual New Development” 		24.42 GB application/x-zip-compressed

Purpose

Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers make plans to adapt by creating computer models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. Using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) version 2 land change model, we simulated future urbanization under a Status Quo scenario of growth across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2020 to 2100.

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  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Southeast CASC

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Type Scheme Key
DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier doi:10.5066/P94N3ICH

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