Modeling Land Use and Cover Change

The goal of this project is to develop and use a simulation approach to portray patterns of future oil and gas development and assess its potential effects on wildlife habitat in Southwest Wyoming. This entails using existing energy build-out specifications to locate new oil and gas well pads, wells, and roads on the landscape at annual time steps. Based on results of published species’ responses to well pad, well, and road densities, we map simulated infrastructure to assess potential effects on wildlife species. To evaluate the potential for reducing surface disturbance and minimizing the effects of future development on wildlife, we simulate alternative build-out designs, such as increased use of directional drilling, and compare them to proposed designs. Assessments of simulated forecasts can illustrate tradeoffs in the conservation potential of alternative designs and help to inform design selection for future developments given specified conservation and energy-production goals. This effort addresses the WLCI management needs to refine approaches and models for predicting future scenarios of potential changes in key drivers of land-use change and likely wildlife responses to these change.

In FY2014, I simulated three alternative drilling designs for 2,000 new wells in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (based on 2012 conditions): 1 vertical well drilled per pad (2,000 pads), and 2 and 4 directional wells drilled per pad (1,000 and 500 pads, respectively). Then I assessed differences in surface area disturbed from building the pads and associated roads. To compare the ecological implications, I developed analytical procedures to assess design effects on sagebrush-obligate songbird habitat, greater sage-grouse lek attendance, travel rates of mule deer along migration corridors, and elk use of habitat. Initial application results illustrate that surface area disturbed and negative effects on wildlife decrease with fewer pads. Overall, quantitative measures of effects on wildlife provide a basis for cost/benefit assessments among designs. A USGS fact sheet and a journal article were developed to describe this initial application and results. The results and future simulation applications will help WLCI LPDTs to prioritize habitat projects and provide a tool to the BLM and other land management agencies for exploring the conservation potential of alternative energy build-out designs.
 

Products Completed in FY2014

• Garman, S.L., and McBeth, J.L., 2015, Digital representation of oil and natural gas well pad scars in Southwest Wyoming -- 2012 update: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 934, at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/0934/pdf/DS934_abstract.pdf.
• Garman, S.L., in press, Forecasting and evaluating future energy development in Southwest Wyoming: WLCI Fact Sheet 7, 2 p., at http://pubs.usgs.gov/wlci/fs/7/.
• Garman, S.L., Forecasting and evaluating alternative energy development in Southwest Wyoming (draft).

Products Completed in FY2013

• Garman, S.L., and McBeth, J.L., 2014, Digital representation of oil and natural gas well pad scars insouthwest Wyoming: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 800, 7 p., at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/800/.
• Garman, S.L., Simulation model: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet (in review).
• Garman, S.L., Simulation applications of alternative oil/gas pad spacing regulations in Southwest.
• Wyoming (in preparation for submission to peer-reviewed journal).

Products Completed in FY2012

• Garman, S. L., and Manier, D., 2012, Simulating future effects of energy development on natural resources, in Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative Science Workshop, May 14-17, 2012, Rock Springs, Wyo., p. 33. Workshop report available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/54610ad6e4b0ba83040c59f0.

• Geospatial data layer of oil/gas pads.

• A working prototype of the spatially-explicit, frame-based simulation model.

• Developed total land-disturbance maps for two 2007 SPOT images (scene image nos. 3264, 3265; see Land Use/Cover Change section in appendix 1 of 2008 Annual Report).