Climate Change and Simulating Potential Future Vegetation
Dates
Start Date
2008
End Date
2012
Summary
Climate change has the potential to affect ecosystems across the WLCI region. Future changes in seasonal temperatures, and the timing and amount of rain and snowfall, may result in significant ecosystem shifts that affect wildlife species. Information on the magnitude and rate of potential changes in climate are needed for understanding and developing responses to the potential future impacts of these changes. For example, Wyoming land managers require future climate information to inform the development of adaptive management plans for the species and ecosystems they manage. The goal of this project is to develop datasets of potential future climate and vegetation changes for southwestern Wyoming that can help to address these management [...]
Summary
Climate change has the potential to affect ecosystems across the WLCI region. Future changes in seasonal temperatures, and the timing and amount of rain and snowfall, may result in significant ecosystem shifts that affect wildlife species. Information on the magnitude and rate of potential changes in climate are needed for understanding and developing responses to the potential future impacts of these changes. For example, Wyoming land managers require future climate information to inform the development of adaptive management plans for the species and ecosystems they manage. The goal of this project is to develop datasets of potential future climate and vegetation changes for southwestern Wyoming that can help to address these management needs.
Climate simulation data produced by five global climate models for the years 2001-2099 were downscaled by USGS climate scientists to a 30-arc-second (approximately 1 km2) grid of the WLCI study area. These future climate simulations contain monthly temperature and precipitation data from which additional bioclimatic variables were calculated, including growing-degree days and mean temperature of the coldest month. The downscaled climate data also are being used with a vegetation model to simulate potential future vegetation changes for Southwest Wyoming. The simulated vegetation data provide a first approximation of potential future habitat changes across the WLCI region.
In FY2012, the datasets containing the simulated southwestern Wyoming climate, bioclimate, and vegetation changes were revised. Final products were drafted and will be completed in FY2013. The data produced by this project will be used in other WLCI projects and by WLCI partners, particularly conservation and natural resource managers, and by members of the scientific community investigating effects of climate change in Wyoming. The data also may contribute to studies of potential future cumulative effects of land-use changes, such as energy development and livestock grazing, in conjunction with climate change. The climate and vegetation data produced by this project will be made available to scientists, managers, and the public.
Products Completed in FY2012
Revised potential future climate and vegetation data sets.
Shafer, S., and others, Projected future climate and vegetation changes for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative study area (in prep.; to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal).
Products Completed in FY2011
Shafer, S., Projected future vegetation changes for the WLCI study area: data and documentation (draft).
Products Completed in FY2010
A set of bioclimatic variables for the study area.
Products Completed in FY2009
Downscaled simulated future temperature and precipitation data from the CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3 AOGCMs to a 30-arc-second grid of the WLCI study area for the period 2001-2100.