How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change?

Florida is home to 50 endangered species, 23 National Wildlife Refuges, 9 national parks, and 119 state parks. Straddling both temperate and sub-tropical zones, the state is also unique in that it is a long and narrow peninsula, surrounded on three sides by warm water, creating a dynamic environment. The impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and severe storms, threaten the state’s unique biodiversity—yet managers are unsure how species will respond to these changes, which makes planning for the future difficult.
 
In order to identify the impacts of climate change on Florida’s plants and wildlife, researchers developed regional climate scenarios identifying how temperature and precipitation patterns may change in the future. Researchers used climate model downscaling methods, which take climate data produced at a global scale to assess future climate at a local scale, to make climate predictions about Florida’s climate. The results of the climate modeling effort identified changes in precipitation, temperature, seasonal cycles, and the frequency of events such as extreme heat days, frost days, and wildfire threats.
 
These scenarios were then used in species, habitat, and ecosystem models to characterize the potential ecological impacts of climate change. Focusing on the Greater Everglades and the Suwannee River-Big Bend, two areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, researchers modeled how plant and animal communities will respond to the predicted climate conditions.
 
The ecological impacts of climate change in Florida will have far-reaching implications, including economic – Everglades National Park, for example, receives close to one million visitors each year. Florida is also home to numerous sensitive ecosystems such as wetlands and sea grass, and a multitude of threatened and endangered species, such as the Florida panther and the iconic manatee. This study addresses critical questions about how these species and ecosystems will respond to climate change. The results of this research help indicate what the future looks like for the state, providing valuable information to resource managers seeking to protect Florida’s unique plants, animals, and ecosystems.