Average projected future (across 5 regional climate models using the A2 emissions scenario) density (birds per hectare) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from 1) Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3); 2) Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM); 3) Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Climate Model (GFDL); 4) Regional Climate Model v3 (RCM3) with boundary conditions driven by the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3); and 5) Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/.
