Development of a Regional Stream Temperature Model for Mapping Thermal Habitats and Understanding Effects of Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Streams
Stream temperature data will be compiled from federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop a comprehensive regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks will be applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts temperatures in all fish-bearing streams across the U.S. portion of the GNLCC. Predictions of historic and future stream temperatures will be used to assess the vulnerability of sensitive fish species to thermal habitat shifts. Objectives: Develop a regional stream temperature model that incorporates important climate drivers, wildfire/riparian conditions, and geomorphic factors; Use the model to understand and predict both historic and future trends in stream temperatures for all reaches within all streams; Assess geographic variation in stream temperature sensitivities to climate change and predict effects on thermal habitats for threatened and endangered aquatic species.
Project Extension
parts
type
Objectives
value
Stream temperature data will be compiled from federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop a comprehensive regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks will be applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts temperatures in all fish-bearing streams across the U.S. portion of the GNLCC. Predictions of historic and future stream temperatures will be used to assess the vulnerability of sensitive fish species to thermal habitat shifts. Objectives: Develop a regional stream temperature model that incorporates important climate drivers, wildfire/riparian conditions, and geomorphic factors; Use the model to understand and predict both historic and future trends in stream temperatures for all reaches within all streams; Assess geographic variation in stream temperature sensitivities to climate change and predict effects on thermal habitats for threatened and endangered aquatic species.
projectProducts
productDescription
Numerous deliverables would be produced from this project, including: a) a comprehensive regional temperature database, b) spatially continuous maps and descriptive summaries of stream temperatures for historic and future climatic conditions, c) thermal habitat maps and descriptive summaries (e.g., total amount of habitat, temporal trends in habitat, fragmentation of habitat) for aquatic species of concern under historic and future climate conditions, and d) spatially continuous maps showing the precision of temperature model outputs. This information will be described in peer-reviewed science manuscripts and presentations at scientific conferences. The temperature database, digital maps, and model outputs will be made available as GIS spatial data layers served through one or more webpages. For examples showing how similar information from related research projects could be delivered, please consult the Western US Streamflow Metrics Webpage (Wenger et al. 2010) that serves downscaled streamflow data associated with different climate scenarios or the Stream Temperature Modeling and Monitoring Webpage. Digital map layers expected mid-2013.
status
Expected
projectStatus
In Progress
Communities
Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative
LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal
