Climate change can affect agricultural production and soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to simulate the first order sensitivity of water resources, soil erosion, and wheat production to assumed climate changes in the region near El Reno, Oklahoma using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model and a climate generator (CLIGEN). Monthly forecasts for the periods of 1950-1999 and 2070-2099 for the region, projected by the UK Hadley Centre's third generation general circulation model (HadCM3), were used. Three emissions scenarios (A2a, B2a, and GGa1) were selected. The WEPP model was run for each scenario in three tillage systems. Projected changes in monthly mean and variance between the two periods [...]
