Precipitation and winter temperature predict long‐term range‐scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12642/abstract): Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built [...]