Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop, the additional consideration of available habitat for each species strongly constrains the possibility of range expansion for most species. While the vulnerability of forest birds to climate change is not new, the robustness of our spatial projections of individual species shifts provide a powerful set of information for management planning and decision making. As our results suggest conventional conservation approaches will not indefinitely safeguard Hawaiian forest birds from climate change, we briefly outline how we plan to facilitate discussion and serious exploration of novel climate-based conservation strategies.
