Modeling cold tolerance in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)

Cold-induced mortality is a key factor driving mountain pine beetle( Dendroctonus ponderosae) population dynamics. In this species, the supercooling point (SCP) is representative of mortality induced by acute cold exposure. Mountain pine beetle SCP and associated cold-induced mortality fluctuate throughout a generation, with the highest SCPs prior to and following winter. Using observed SCPs of field-collected D. ponderosae larvae throughout the developmental season and associated phloem temperatures, we developed a mechanistic model that describes the SCP distribution of a population as a function of daily changes in the temperature-dependent processes leading to gain and loss of cold tolerance. It is based on the changing proportion [...]