Change from Historical in Number of Days with High Fire Risk (Energy Release Component > 95th percentile), RCP8.5, 2050s
Dates
Start Date
2040
End Date
2069
Citation
Abatzoglou, J.T. 2013. Change from Historical in Number of Days with High Fire Risk (Energy Release Component > 95th percentile), RCP8.5, 2050s. USGS ScienceBase.
Summary
The Energy Release Component (ERC) is a calculated output of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). The ERC is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC will increase and can be described as a build-up index. The ERC has memory. Each daily calculation considers the past 7 days in calculating the new number. Daily variations of the ERC are relatively small as wind is not part of the calculation. The ERC is projected to the 2050s using three different Global Circulation [...]
Summary
The Energy Release Component (ERC) is a calculated output of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). The ERC is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC will increase and can be described as a build-up index. The ERC has memory. Each daily calculation considers the past 7 days in calculating the new number. Daily variations of the ERC are relatively small as wind is not part of the calculation. The ERC is projected to the 2050s using three different Global Circulation Models: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MIROC5. Other data in this project used the CCSM4 model. Since that model was not available in the ERC data, the MIROC5 model projection was used as a middle climate change projection in its stead.
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Energy Release Component.lpk
143.2 KB
application/x-7z-compressed
EnergyReleasecnrm.fgdc.xml Original FGDC Metadata
View
7.33 KB
application/fgdc+xml
Purpose
The ERC relates well to the condition of the fuels. Fire managers and planners have found that the ERC can be used as a decision tool to prepare for an approaching fire season or it can be used as a tool for daily staffing when used in combination with other NFDRS components such as 100-hr fuel moisture or the Burning Index (BI). Tracking the ERC and other NFDRS components through the season and on a daily basis will increase the situational awareness of wildland firefighters.
