In the desert Southwest, changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution that may occur with climate change have significant implications for management of natural resources. These changes include: the extirpation or introduction of species, losses of biodiversity, shifts in structure and function of ecosystems and the services they provide, changes in wildlife habitat, invasion of non-native species, and changes in fire regimes. For planning, mitigation, and adaption, land managers would be greatly aided by knowing, in advance, which plant species, functional types, and assemblages will change in response to climate change so that monitoring and mitigation measures can focus on those resources.
Our overall goal is to understand how climate change will impact desert vegetation from a hydrological perspective. To accomplish this goal, we have the following specific objectives:
- Simulate water balance and availability at long-term vegetation monitoring plots
- Compare the model output with observed vegetation patterns to identify the features of water availability that are crucial for plant species responses
- Assess the vulnerability/sustainability of individual plant species and functional types by simulatingsite-specific water balance and availability under future climate scenarios
- Create ecosystem-specific applied science tools to allow managers to identify species and communities at risk under future climate scenarios based on predicted changes in plant water availability
