Final Report-Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South-Central United States
Dates
Publication Date
2016
Citation
Mihunov. V.V., Lam N. S. N., and Zou. L., 2016, Combined county-level drought incidence, damage, and census data.
Summary
The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the south-central region. However, little is known on whether existing drought indices can predict the damages and how different human communities respond and adapt to the hazard. This project examines whether existing drought indices can predict the occurrence of drought events and their actual damages, how the adaptive capacity (i.e., resilience) varies across space, and what public outreach and engagement effort would be most effective for mitigation of risk and impacts. The study region includes all 503 counties in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, [...]
Summary
The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the south-central region. However, little is known on whether existing drought indices can predict the damages and how different human communities respond and adapt to the hazard. This project examines whether existing drought indices can predict the occurrence of drought events and their actual damages, how the adaptive capacity (i.e., resilience) varies across space, and what public outreach and engagement effort would be most effective for mitigation of risk and impacts. The study region includes all 503 counties in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Correlation results show that existing drought indices, including the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), appear to be useful indicators of drought damage. However, as expected, the correlation is confounded by the resiliency of the communities. Resilience assessment reveals distinct spatial variation in the levels of resilience to droughts across the region, with higher-resilience counties located mostly in Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and near large metropolitan areas. A total of 15 socioeconomic variables were found to be statistically associated with the level of resilience. Not surprisingly, these variables suggest that higher resilience is associated with higher socioeconomic condition. Results from the household surveys indicate that perception of drought and adoption of water conservation measures among residents and farmers is far from universal, and therefore, opportunities exist for more rigorous public education and community engagement. This project is among the first to study the linkages between drought indices, community resilience, and residents’ adaptive behavior. The findings provide useful baseline information and help in the design of more effective drought management and public engagement efforts.
