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  5. Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes

Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes

Principal Investigator
Erica Fleishman

Dates

Start Date
2017-09-01
End Date
2021-08-31
Release Date
2017

Summary

The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona Game and Fish Department, [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Erica Fleishman
Co-Investigator :
Esther Rubin, Britta Daudert, Tyler Creech, Steven Sesnie, Dan Cayan, Matt Williamson
Funding Agency :
Southwest CSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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ToiyabeNtlForest_NV_AlanCressler.jpg
“Toiyabe National Forest, NV; Credit: Alan Cressler” 		thumbnail 1 MB image/jpeg

Purpose

Some types of climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are projected to occur more frequently in the southwestern United States (Southwest) as global climate changes. These extremes can have substantial effects on wildlife habitat, especially the availability of food. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations increasingly will require information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective interventions that are likely to sustain wildlife populations. This project will use historical climate data, satellite data on vegetation greenness, and field data on the spatial locations and abundance of wildlife populations to explore the links among climate variables, food availability, and wildlife populations. We then will use climate models to project how forage, and ultimately wildlife populations, are likely to respond to projected changes in climate. This project will focus on desert grasslands, which support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. We will model the effects of changing resource availability on four grassland species: American pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), Gunnison’s prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamat), and Gambel’s Quail (Callipepla gambelii). The approaches and methods developed in this project may be relevant to land cover types, geographic areas, and species beyond Southwest grasslands. This project will help inform landscape-level planning, establish conservation priorities, and suggest management approaches for adapting to shifting climate and resource availability for wildlife. For example, results of this research could be used by state wildlife agencies to guide management of grasslands for species of greatest conservation need or economically important game species, by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish high-priority locations within the National Wildlife Refuge System, and by conservation organizations to prioritize conservation easements and land purchases in grasslands likely to remain high-quality habitat for wildlife.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueThis project seeks to provide wildlife managers, natural resource planners, and conservation organizations in the southwestern United States (Southwest) with long-term, spatially explicit projections of resource availability for herbivores in desert grasslands that will support the design of effective conservation strategies. Some forms of climate extremes, including droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur with increasing frequency and magnitude in the Southwest. Research on how desert grasslands and the wildlife communities they support are likely to respond to these climatic changes can have substantial ecological and social benefits. Models of wildlife responses to climate change largely have focused on projected changes in average temperature and precipitation, but changes in resource availability may be more relevant to wildlife and more readily affected by conservation and management actions. Remotely sensed phenology metrics are responsive to climate and hydrological variables and can serve as useful indicators of resource availability for herbivores, but long-term projections of phenology under future climate scenarios are not yet available. The main components of this project are development of statistical models of the relations between historical climate and remotely sensed phenology variables; projections of future phenology on the basis of these statistical models, with downscaled climate projections as model inputs; assessment of relations between space use, abundance, or occupancy of focal wildlife species and phenology variables; and projection of changes in space use, abundance, or occupancy of these species on the basis of future phenology scenarios. Analyses will focus on grassland species considered regional management priorities because of their rarity, economic importance, or ecological role as a keystone species. Project participants include the Arizona Game and Fish Department, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
projectStatusIn Progress

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2017
totalFunds98686.48
year2018
totalFunds71509.32
parts
typeAward Type
valueGrant
typeAward Number
valueG17AP00098
totalFunds170195.8

Toiyabe National Forest, NV; Credit: Alan Cressler
Toiyabe National Forest, NV; Credit: Alan Cressler

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC d903fce7-f828-444f-84ef-0105dc8db0bd
StampID NCCWSC SW17-FE0948

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