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  5. Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests

Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests

Learning From Recent Snow Droughts To Improve Resource Management
Principal Investigator
Adrian Harpold

Dates

Start Date
2017-09-01
End Date
2024-05-28
Release Date
2017

Summary

In the dry southwestern United States, snowmelt plays a crucial role as a water source for people, vegetation, and wildlife. However, snow droughts significantly lower snow accumulations, disrupting these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its large influence on land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, project researchers are examining the causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide needed scientific information and guidance to planners and decision makers. The central goals of this proposal are to [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Adrian Harpold
Co-Investigator :
Stephanie McAfee, Michael Dettinger, Seshadri Rajagopal
Funding Agency :
Southwest CSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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SierraNevada_CA_BLM.jpg
“Sierra Nevada, CA; Credit: BLM” 		thumbnail 804.22 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Snowmelt provides water that supports people and vegetation in the dry Southwest U.S., and snow drought—extreme snowpack deficits--disrupts these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its critical importance to land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, researchers will examine causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide guidance to decision makers. Preliminary analyses indicate that several different types of snow droughts occur in the southwest U.S., arising from a variety of different factors. “Dry snow drought” is caused by a lack of winter precipitation needed to accumulate snow. “Warm snow drought” can be caused by early snowmelt or by precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. This project will address two key questions regarding snow drought that will have large management implications: 1) What are the effects of snow drought on water-resources forecasting skill and can that skill be improved by adding snow drought information? and 2) What are the effects of snow drought on historical wildfires and forecasts of wildfire risks? Efforts to improve water resources and wildfire forecasts are critically important for Southwestern communities and economies. Improved water resources forecasting can allow better use of vital snowmelt supplies in drought years, and fighting wildfires costs billions annually. Small improvements in forecasting can help managers improve efficiency and reduce costs. Improved understanding of snow drought frequency, causes, and effects on seasonal forecasting will benefit a variety of end-users and can improve resource predictions and planning in the face of increasing climate extremes.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueSnow drought threatens water availability for people and ecosystems of the Southwest. We have recently developed definitions to identify snow droughts and distinguish their differing causes. Dry snow droughts arise from a lack of snowpack due to lack of precipitation. Warm snow droughts develop from combinations of early melt (warm-melt) and rain (warm-rain) due to warm temperatures. Here our objectives are to 1) understand the historical distribution and causes of snow droughts, 2) understand their effects on streamflow, 3) improve streamflow forecasts following snow drought by considering additional information, and 4) evaluate the utility of snow drought for seasonal forecasting of wildland fire risk. Preliminary results using NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations show that the southwestern U.S. experiences these different types of snow drought at different frequencies depending on location. We use the daily measurements at SNOTEL stations to identify snow droughts as a function of snow water equivalent (SWE) and further define warm and dry snow drought based on the ratio of SWE to winter precipitation (or SWE/P) ratios. We will build statistical models with the SNOTEL data to predict the occurrence of different types of snow droughts across the Southwest. Next, we will evaluate the accuracy of 30-50 April-July streamflow volume forecasts from the NRCS and California DWR. After identifying where forecast skill is low following snow droughts, we will use a novel two-step principal component regression method to introduce additional information, such as SWE/P ratio or soil moisture, into the streamflow forecasts. Finally, we will explore the aspects of snow drought that promote wildland fire by investigating the historical effects of snow-drought types on the seasonal wildfire outlook, summer fuel moisture, and energy release observations. We expect the project to deliver multiple peer-reviewed journal articles, useful and publicly available datasets, and several management briefs that distill the science findings. Project results and dataset access will be provided through a simple website. We have partnered with previous collaborators at the NRCS and California DWR to work on streamflow forecasts. The project has received support and input from a variety of collaborators spanning water, climate, and forest/range managers and planners.
projectStatusCompleted

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2017
totalFunds89381.0
year2018
totalFunds10000.0
year2018
totalFunds61511.0
parts
typeAward Type
valueGrant
typeAward Number
valueG17AP00101
typeAward Type
valueCOA
typeAward Number - FY18
valueC18000281
totalFunds160892.0

Sierra Nevada, CA; Credit: BLM
Sierra Nevada, CA; Credit: BLM

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC 677d5336-1fdc-43e9-b347-21cb55b9cf41
StampID NCCWSC SW17-HA0927

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