Synthesizing drought characteristics prediction to inform drought resiliency decisions from days to years
Dates
Start Date
2017-09-01
End Date
2019-08-31
Summary
Utah just came out of a multi-year drought (2012-2016) which stressed the state’s water resources and challenged water resource management, but the million-dollar questions remain: 1. When will the next big drought come? and 2. how long will it last? Building on our previous WaterSMART project that studied the decadal variability in Utah’s hydroclimate using tree-ring records, this project will develop a long-term (2-5-year) prediction that will inform management of the likelihood of the next prolonged drought. Based upon Utah’s unique wet-dry climate cycles, the Project Team will characterize drought in the Wasatch Range by combining the tools that are currently in development. Project activities include the application of decadal [...]
Summary
Utah just came out of a multi-year drought (2012-2016) which stressed the state’s water resources and challenged water resource management, but the million-dollar questions remain: 1. When will the next big drought come? and 2. how long will it last? Building on our previous WaterSMART project that studied the decadal variability in Utah’s hydroclimate using tree-ring records, this project will develop a long-term (2-5-year) prediction that will inform management of the likelihood of the next prolonged drought. Based upon Utah’s unique wet-dry climate cycles, the Project Team will characterize drought in the Wasatch Range by combining the tools that are currently in development. Project activities include the application of decadal prediction experiments for the derivation of key water cycle processes of mountain snowpack, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture at localized level with a 2-5-year timescale, as well as disseminating the information through internet apps and coordinated meetings to inform water resource management and also to refine through seeking feedback. Past work has led to the development of the proposed tasks and now is the time to coordinate these tasks into a concerted effort. When it comes to drought contingency planning, combining information of the water cycle processes will create a new paradigm that is greater than the sum of its parts. Project outcome will (a) enhance the decadal prediction output of drought and (b) help build a synthesized information platform. Synthesized drought information will have the capacity to inform water resources management and in doing so, help make upfront preparation for the impending drought phase of Utah’s unique climate cycle.
