Western Alaska is one of the fastest warming regions on the globe and recent trends are expected to continue into the next century, likely having substantial effects on the aquatic resources of this region. While increased air temperatures will have direct effects on water temperatures, indirect effects due to changes in precipitation, groundwater characteristics, and flow regimes may have much larger effects on aquatic ecosystems. Coastal watersheds of Western Alaska are expected to receive 25-50% more snow and 18-25% more rain in the next century. Future “climate warming” may actually cool some streams if the ratio of snow to rain increases for coastal watersheds, while rain-dominated streams are likely to become warmer during the open water season. The magnitude of the temperature and hydrologic impact will depend on geomorphology and landscape features specific to individual streams and the model we develop will enable these projections. Given the cultural, economic and ecological importance of aquatic resources in Western Alaska, there is pressing need to develop scenarios of the trajectories and magnitude of climate driven changes to aquatic ecosystems in this region. This research will inform efforts to develop management strategies for adapting to future warmer climates and to protect the aquatic resources of the region. Because so many terrestrial species are dependent on salmon-derived resources in this region, our work will also be important for understanding the future impacts of climate change on species and habitats dependent on the annual influx of marine-derived resources.
