Marsh Response to Sea-level Rise, 2010-2100, Connecticut

This product results from one of 5 subprojects of the North Atlantic LCC funded NROC project, “Demonstrations & Science Delivery Networks for Coastal Resilience Information in the Northeast”.

Percent likelihood maps were generated through the project “Advancing Existing Assessment of Connecticut Marshes’ Response to SLR”, sponsored by Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC) and completed by Warren Pinnacle Consulting. Percent Likelihood rasters were derived from stochastic uncertainty simulations carried out using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) for the years 2010 (initial conditions), 2025, 2040, 2055, 2070, 2085 and 2100. In these simulations, model inputs were represented as probability distributions, for example: The sea-level rise by 2100 parameter was assigned a symmetrical triangular distribution with a minimum of 0.35 m, a 10th percentile of .362, a most-likley value of 1.04 m, 90th percentile of 1.84, and the maximum set to 2.35 m.

Complete details of the parameter setup are available at www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/NROC.