The primary goal of this project was to predict climate-related changes in the timing and duration of insect prey availability for arctic-breeding shorebirds. Researchers coordinated closely with the Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network, whose collaborators sampled aquatic insect emergence, terrestrial insect activity, and associated environmental data at sites across arctic Alaska and Canada. Using ASDN data, they developed mathematical models that relate the timing and duration of insect emergence and activity to accumulated temperature, weather, and other environmental variables. They used these models to predict future changes in the timing of arctic insect availability based on climate change projections. This exercise identified geographic areas and pond types where phenological changes in insect availability were expected to be greatest. The authors also collaborated with ASDN researchers to compare the availability of insect prey to shorebird nesting chronology to determine if food supply is synchronous with demand.
