Future Sage-Grouse Habitat Scenarios, Southeast Oregon Study Area, 2007-2096

Dates

Publication Date: 2015-04-22
Start Date: 2007
End Date: 2096

Citation

Henderson, E., Creutzberg, M., Halofsky, J. 2015. Future Sage-Grouse Habitat Scenarios, Southeast Oregon Study Area, 2007-2096. USGS ScienceBase.

Summary

The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. 1) "Path Landscape Mode" folder contains files to be run in the PLM softwarel, version 3.0.4 or later. Path models MUST be run with the provided MCM mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart STM. - The [...]

Summary

The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. 1) "Path Landscape Mode" folder contains files to be run in the PLM softwarel, version 3.0.4 or later. Path models MUST be run with the provided MCM mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart STM. - The 'Multipliers' folder contains multipliers specific to each ownership-allocation to activate or deactivate transitions (both climate change and management). Actual treatments are input in the Treatments tab for each stratum in the 'Runs' folder. - The 'Runs' folder contains one Path scenario per modeling stratum, with initial conditions specific to each stratum (combination of watershed and ownership-allocation). The models are stored as a dependency from the 'Common' folder and the multipliers as a dependency from the 'Multipliers' scenario. For the scenarios that have management activities (current and restoration management), a specified number of acres for each treatment is shown in the Treatments tab for treated stata. There are 12 databases, one for each combintation of management and climate scenario run in southeast Oregon. Climate scenarios include: - No climate change - continuing current climate (NoCC) - HadGEM global circulation model, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (HadGEM) - NorESM global circulation model, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (NorESM) - MRI global circulation model, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (MRI) Management scenarios include: - No management - no restoration treatments (NoMgt) - Current management - current treatment rates compiled from managers in the region (CurMgt) - Restoration management - a restoration scenario to restore sage-grouse habitat (RestMgt) 2) The "lookupTables" folder contains files necessary for providing definitions and context for the information located in other folders. 3) The 'Spatial' folder contains the SEO region stratum map, called SEO_Modeling_Strata.tif. This map can be joined to output from the climate-informed state-and-transition models to map projected future condition or sage-grouse habitat on the "Strata" field. Modeling strata consist of the intersection of watershed (Hydrologic unit code [HUC]) and ownership-allocation map. Watersheds are three digit codes starting at 101. Ownership-allocation categories are a two-character label, and are described in the attribute table through the fields "Ownership", and "Allocation". The field ScenarioID indicates the internal ID number used by the Path software to link results for modeling strata to its Scenario names. 4) This folder contains summarized modeling results that can be viewed as nonspatial trends across the whole landscape or displayed across mapped modeling strata. The .tif file in the 3Spatial folder shows the spatial distribution of modeling strata. There are 3 subfolders: ClassesSummary, TransitionSummary, and HabitatSummary. The csv files within ClassesSummary contain summaries of state class area (in Acres) for each timestep, over monte carlo repetitions, within each modeling stratum. Those within TransitionSummary are summarized in the same manner, but contain summaries of area affected by each Transition Type. The csv files within HabitatSummary are designed to be joined ot the grid mentioned above, to allow for a spatial depiction of habitat projections. There is one column per modeled year, containing a summary that indicates the proportion of each modeling stratum that is comprised of potential greater sage grouse habitat (the general summary, not the high-quality summary, averaged over monte carlo repetitions). Sample queries outlining how to build new summaries of output data for mapping from the ClassesSummary files and lookup tables are included in the database: SEO_Summaries.accdb. Due to a minor error in starting conditions, summaries of sage-grouse habitat may be underestimated in the early years, especially within the northwestern quadrant of the map. Because of this, we have removed the summaries of the first four years within the Habitat summary files, and constrain the sample queries to only show projections for after 2011. If the early years of this summary data are needed for viewing other parts of the map, they can be constructed by removing a constraint within query1 of the sample queries shown above.

Contacts

Point of Contact :: Institute for Natural Resources, Emilie Henderson
Originator :: Emilie Henderson, Megan Creutzberg, Jessica Halofsky, Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University
Metadata Contact :: Emilie Henderson, Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University
Distributor :: U.S. Geological Survey, GS ScienceBase

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southeastOregon_Henderson.xml Original FGDC Metadata	View	13.98 KB	application/fgdc+xml
1SEO_PathLandscapeModels.zip		13.4 MB	application/zip
2SEO_LookupTablesAndDefinitions.zip		58.74 KB	application/zip
3SEO_Spatial (1).zip		9.81 MB	application/zip
HabitatSummaries.zip		6.69 MB	application/zip
TransitionsSummary.zip		167.94 MB	application/zip
README.txt		1.74 KB	text/plain
OSE_Summaries.zip		244.9 MB	application/zip
ClassesSummary.zip		538.43 MB	application/zip

Related External Resources

Type: catalogItemUrl

Digital Data	https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5006e784e4b0abf7ce733f4d

Purpose

Balancing socio-economic and ecological demands on forests is an ongoing challenge and may be further complicated by future changes in climate. Land managers need information on the potential effects of climate change for future management planning that considers the diversity of valuable natural resources (forest products, clean water, wildfire control, etc.) that are linked to vegetation. The objectives of this project are to explore how climate and land management in southwestern Oregon and coastal Washington might interact to shape future vegetation and wildlife habitat, and determine what management actions will likely maximize habitats for key species. Through computer simulations that are run under a range of future management and climate scenarios, this project will build upon a body of knowledge that can help inform management planning for a changing future, raising the likelihood that ecosystems can be sustained for both humans and wildlife.

Future Sage-Grouse Habitat Scenarios, Southeast Oregon Study Area, 2007-2096

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