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  5. Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin

Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin

Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change in Federally-Managed Lands in the Northern Great Basin to Inform Future Management Decisions
Principal Investigator
Christopher Soulard

Dates

Start Date
2018-07-20
End Date
2019-09-30
Release Date
2018

Summary

The sagebrush rangelands of the Great Basin provide crucial habitat for a diversity of wildlife, including the pronghorn and the greater sage-grouse. These water-limited, highly-managed ecosystems have already been degraded by wildfires, the expansion of invasive grasses, and livestock grazing, and are expected to experience additional stress as climate and land use conditions change. Effective management of sagebrush ecosystems in the future will require the ability to understand and predict these future changes. To address this need, researchers will identify historical rates and causes of vegetation change in shrubland ecosystems, then use this information to develop potential future climate and land use scenarios for three federally-managed [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Christopher Soulard
Funding Agency :
Northwest CASC
Cooperator/Partner :
Collin Homer, Angela Sitz, William Boothe
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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Central_OR_Cascades_MPD.jpg
“Central Oregon Cascades, Public Domain” 		thumbnail 1.07 MB image/jpeg

Purpose

Shrubland ecosystems in the Great Basin provide crucial habitat for a large number of terrestrial fauna. These water-limited, highly-managed ecosystems are likely to experience amplified stress under future climate change and land use regimes. New opportunities have emerged to better understand how climate, fire, and land-use activities like grazing have historically altered vegetation in sagebrush-dominant landscapes. Through an interagency partnership, we propose to quantify historical rates and causes of vegetation change in shrubland ecosystems and apply historical relationships to develop integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for Hart Mountain National Refuge (USFWS), Beaty Butte Herd Management Area (BLM), and Sheldon National Refuge (USFWS), three federally-managed areas located in close proximity near the OR/NV border. We will identify patterns and rates of landscape change over three decades, investigate vegetation disturbance and recovery rates over time, quantify the relationship between climate and vegetation, and create climate-land change scenarios to highlight locations that are more or less resilient to change stressors. Products will include: 1) a historical assessment of the rates and causes of vegetation change in three federally managed units, 2) spatially-explicit scenarios from years 2010 – 2050 consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, and 3) an article describing how to apply historical data and future projections for evaluating management actions in the face of potential climate change/land-use change. Collectively, these products will help guide land managers towards devising sustainable strategies to meet long-term goals. We will also include an outreach component at one or more regional events intended to disseminate our findings and ultimately improve land management decisions, particularly by increasing ecosystem resiliency to climate change and land use change impacts.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueHart Mountain National Refuge (USFWS), Beaty Butte Herd Management Area (BLM), and Sheldon National Refuge (USFWS) are located in close proximity near the Oregon-Nevada border; however, each management area has a unique land-use history based on different biogeographic characteristics and contrasting management practices. The broad objective of this pilot study is to devise methods to aid USFWS and BLM management planning in sagebrush ecosystems. Specifically, we aim to quantify land cover changes caused by fire, grazing, and climate in federally-managed areas located in the northern Great Basin by analyzing spatially-explicit shrubland vegetation time series data. The USGS has recently used 30-meter Landsat imagery to produce fractional cover of rangeland components (shrub, sagebrush, herbaceous, barren, and litter) annually from 1985 to 2015. We will quantify the rates and driving forces of change by bringing together a variety of empirical change data from the 30-year National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Shrubland time series, fire data from MTBS/BAECV, grazing information from land managers, and climate-vegetation relationships derived by comparing NLCD Shrubland to DAYMET. We will also monitor post-disturbance vegetation recovery rates. These data will be used to construct a 40-year projection of future rangeland cover using a business-as-usual scenario and alternate climate change scenarios (2010-2050). Summaries of historical and future projected changes, along with map projections, will be delivered, reviewed, revised, and finalized with help from USFWS and BLM cooperators. Final results will be made publically available on USGS ScienceBase and summarized in a journal article on the subject. Results will help managers discern climate effects from fire and grazing effects in federal lands, and will be used to make more informed decisions regarding ecosystem resiliency.
projectStatusCompleted

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2018
totalFunds84148.0
parts
typeAward Type
valueCOA
typeAward Number
valueC18000533
totalFunds84148.0

Central Oregon Cascades, Public Domain
Central Oregon Cascades, Public Domain

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  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Northwest CASC

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC ea668689-3661-4ac3-a94b-76f210c9b2b1
StampID NCCWSC NW18-SC1324

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