apalachicola_Floater.mxd

Our objective was to develop a species-distribution model using habitat associations that represent probability of suitable habitat for the species historical range and the range under climate change scenarios including a hot/dry prediction (MIROC3.2) and a cool/wet prediction (ECHAM5) and 1-m and 2-m sea level rise scenarios; urban growth was also inlcuded. Future model predictions were based on extrapolated data for two time steps in the 21st century: mid (2046-2064) and late (2081-2100). Species distributions were modeled with Maxent (Maximum Entropy presence-only algorithm); climate change scenarios were based on precipitation and temperature changes as applied to stream conditions (e.g., flow) modeled with ArcSWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), which also factors in urban area change which we modeled using SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation and Hillshade forescast model). Modeling results for streams were summarized within catchments and Importance Indices were developed to represent how suitable habitat may change based on each climate scenario separately and added together.