Final Report: Optimization of Marsh Restoration for Storm Surge Abatement and Sea-Level Rise
Dates
Acquisition
2018-07-30
Summary
This report summarizes results of simulations with the model Hydro-MEM (the combined Hydrodynamic and Marsh Equilibrium Model) of the evolution of saltmarshes in response to future sea-level rise in four areas: 1) the coastline from the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay north to the Virginia-Maryland border (“VA”); 2) the Virginia-Maryland border north to Ocean City Inlet (“MD”); 3) the New Jersey coastline surrounding Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (“NJ”); and 4) Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts (“PIE”). These sites contain land protected and regulated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Because ecosystems do not stop at political boundaries, however, these study sites also include surrounding areas that are either monitored by [...]
Summary
This report summarizes results of simulations with the model Hydro-MEM (the combined Hydrodynamic and Marsh Equilibrium Model) of the evolution of saltmarshes in response to future sea-level rise in four areas: 1) the coastline from the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay north to the Virginia-Maryland border (“VA”); 2) the Virginia-Maryland border north to Ocean City Inlet (“MD”); 3) the New Jersey coastline surrounding Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (“NJ”); and 4) Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts (“PIE”). These sites contain land protected and regulated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Because ecosystems do not stop at political boundaries, however, these study sites also include surrounding areas that are either monitored by other state agencies or privately owned. These saltmarsh systems occupy a spectrum of estuaries ranging from microtidal to mesotidal. All four sites have saltmarshes present both on the lagoon-side of barrier islands or spits and on the mainland. The VA, MD, and NJ sites have spatially dynamic tidal hydrology such that the tide range varies throughout the system, but remains in the microtidal range, while the PIE is mesotidal. The strength of combining hydrologic and biological processes in Hydro-MEM is that it accommodates spatially (and temporally) dynamic flows, an important factor for the response of marsh vegetation to rising sea level.
The model Hydro-MEM couples the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model of hydrodynamic tidal processes with the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) of biologically and physically driven marsh surface accretion. The coupling of these models incorporates feedback between spatially and temporally variable hydrodynamics and biological processes such that the productivity of marsh vegetation and vertical accretion are dependent upon the relative marsh elevation and tidal hydroperiod. The hydrodynamics, in turn, are dependent on the relative elevation of the marsh landscape, geomorphology, and distribution of tidal creeks. MEM updates the topography in 10-year time steps for the low sea-level rise scenario (sea level increases by 50 cm, by year 2100) and in 5year time steps for the intermediate and high sea-level rise scenarios (sea level increases by 100 cm and 150 cm, respectively, by year 2100) (Sweet et al., 2017). Hydro-MEM projects changes in hydrodynamics and marsh relative elevation. In this work, model changes in the geomorphological pattern of estuarine landscapes (e.g. resulting from creek edge erosion or barrier island migration) are not incorporated.
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Morris_U of SC_Sandy Final 7-27-2018.pdf
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Purpose
The purpose of this project was to investigate saltmarsh evolution and resilience using a coupled hydrodynamic and vegetation model, the Hydro-MEM, under three NOAA projected sea-level rise scenarios (0.5 m, 1 m, and 1.5 m increase from 2000 to 2100).
Communities
LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal
