Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast

Principal Investigator

Ross Meentemeyer

Start Date

2019-04-19

End Date

2023-04-18

Release Date

2018

Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers make plans to adapt by creating computer models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. especially is experiencing rapid population growth, as a favorable winter climate has drawn millions to the region from other areas of the country over the past several decades. However, the Southeast is also at risk from the effects of climate change, particularly along its vast coastline, where over a quarter of the region’s population lives. Recent studies have called attention to the potential for flooding from sea level rise to motivate residents to move from low-lying coastal areas to less risky inland locations at higher elevation. To date, no research has explicitly considered how the existing flow of people into the region will interact with the potentially increasing drive to move away from the coast. Here we will build on prior efforts to model future change by developing more comprehensive scenarios of future urbanization patterns in the Southeastern U.S. Using cutting-edge simulations with location-based data, we will account for the strength of two potentially counteracting forces: 1) an increasing redistribution of people from coastal and low-lying areas as they become more vulnerable to climate change stressors, and 2) the existing migration flows into the Southeast, which also could change as the climate warms. The resulting urban change scenarios will allow natural resource decision makers to visualize and anticipate hotspots of urbanization and population movement across the region in the upcoming decades.

ScienceBase WMS

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• Southeast CASC