Forests west of the Cascade Crest in Oregon and Washington have been shaped by infrequent but severe wildfires that historically occurred at intervals spanning several centuries. Since the mid-1900s, relatively few fires have occurred in the region, resulting in a general lack of understanding of the drivers of these fires, the impacts on ecosystems, and possible management responses. Most of the current regional understanding of fire regimes and impacts instead comes from the drier, interior forests. However, recent fire events between 2014 and 2018 (e.g., the Norse Peak Fire in Washington) have raised concern among land managers in the Pacific Northwest about fire risk in a warming climate. This project will build a foundational [...]
Summary
Forests west of the Cascade Crest in Oregon and Washington have been shaped by infrequent but severe wildfires that historically occurred at intervals spanning several centuries. Since the mid-1900s, relatively few fires have occurred in the region, resulting in a general lack of understanding of the drivers of these fires, the impacts on ecosystems, and possible management responses. Most of the current regional understanding of fire regimes and impacts instead comes from the drier, interior forests. However, recent fire events between 2014 and 2018 (e.g., the Norse Peak Fire in Washington) have raised concern among land managers in the Pacific Northwest about fire risk in a warming climate.
This project will build a foundational understanding of the climatic drivers of wildfire, post-fire forest response, and adaptation options in the western Cascades. Working with federal, tribal, and state partners, researchers will accomplish this through a two-stage effort. First, researchers will use historical climate records and models of future climate conditions to identify the extreme weather conditions (e.g., late summer drought and dry east winds) that have enabled fires to burn in the past, and determine how these will change in the future. Second, they will measure where two valuable forest resources - trees and huckleberry - are recovering in recently burned areas in western Washington and Oregon, to understand early post-fire recovery dynamics in these forests. The results will then be incorporated into maps that can inform adaptation options for managers seeking to increase the resilience of key forest resources.
The Washington Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the Tulalip Tribe, and the National Park Service (NPS) have identified the need for improved information on the climatic drivers of wildfires west of the Cascade Crest and information on how these forests will respond to recent fires. A warming climate and its relationship to fire is a critical resource management concern for treaty resources, planning in the wildland-urban interface, managing for Federally-listed species of concern, and the DNR’s State Wildland Fire Protection 10-Year Strategic Plan. Results from this project will inform US Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plan revisions and NPS post-fire planning under a warming climate and guide pre- and post-fire adaptive management by the NPS, USFS, DNR, and several Northwest Tribes.
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Natural resource managers throughout the Northwest are facing unprecedented challenges stemming from the combination of warming temperatures and increasing forest fire activity. Nowhere is actionable science on wildfire more lacking than the western side of the Cascade Mountains of Washington and northern Oregon (‘western Cascadia’), where infrequent but very large, climatically-driven wildfires shape the landscape. At a convening on western Cascadia wildfire in December 2018, federal, state, local and tribal entities identified two strategic science needs: (1) improved information on the climatic drivers of westside wildfire and (2) an understanding of how westside forests will respond to recent fires. To address these needs, with our collaborators and partners, we will co-develop foundational information on the drivers, effects, and adaptation options for post-fire management in westside forests. We will leverage long-term climate data and future regional climate modeling, and seize the unprecedented opportunity to measure vegetation response to recent westside fires—including locations where we have pilot field data on fire characteristics. We will generate regional maps and products to inform adaptation options for fostering resilience of key resources (e.g., tree establishment and huckleberry habitat) to fire. Our project will produce statistical distributions and thresholds of (a) the historical climatic drivers of large westside wildfires, (b) the future likelihood of climatic conditions conducive to fire under climate change, and c) post-fire forest vegetation recovery as a function of fire severity, topo-climate, and pre-fire stand structure conditions. Our collaborative team of scientists, managers, and stakeholders represents the University of Washington, Washington State DNR, Pacific Northwest units of the USFS and NPS, Tulalip Tribe, and local governments.