Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains 2002-2011

Publication Date

2019

Start Date

2000

End Date

2014

Zak, J., Scott-Fleming, I., and Gestel, N.V., 2019, Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the southern Great Plains 2002-2011.

There have been numerous fire episodes during the past decade, yet ground-surface conditions that promote fire development are not well known. Fire-facilitating weather conditions result from much more than simple lack of precipitation or specific wind speeds. Instead they are emergent properties governed by how soils store and release heat and dry out litter as a consequence of precipitation patterns, soil type, and land-use. Soil moisture, an important modulator of soil thermal regime, is expected to change as regional climate models predict rainfall patterns to increase in magnitude, but with longer intervals between rain events. The time is now to fine-tune the fire weather forecast predictions using soil temperature, soil moisture and weather conditions for a variety of managed and unmanaged systems in West Texas and Oklahoma. We plan to use long-term data (> 8 years) to provide us with a more solid understanding of drought development conditions (hence, fire weather risk, or additionally, for drought risk) under different scenarios of precipitation size and soil temperature. Knowing when and what areas are and will be prone to develop favorable fire weather conditions during the year will help managers in their decision-making process regarding conservation, fire prevention, or crop production.

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• South Central CASC

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