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Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia

Dates

Publication Date

Citation

Kratzmann, M.G., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Himmelstoss, E.A., 2021, Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH.

Summary

During Hurricane Irma, Florida and Georgia experienced substantial impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses from hurricanes result in increased vulnerability of coastal regions, including densely populated areas. Erosion may put critical infrastructure at risk of future flooding and may cause economic loss. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program is working to assess shoreline erosion along the southeast U.S. coastline and analyze its implications for future vulnerability.

Child Items (2)

Contacts

Point of Contact :
Meredith G. Kratzmann
Originator :
Meredith G. Kratzmann, Amy S. Farris, Rachel E. Henderson, Emily A. Himmelstoss
Publisher :
U.S. Geological Survey
Data Owner :
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Distributor :
U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
SDC Data Owner :
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
USGS Mission Area :
Natural Hazards

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FL_GA_Forecast_and_Uncertainty.jpg
“Map showing the extents of shoreline forecasting for Florida and Georgia.” 		thumbnail 59.08 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Shoreline positions were collected prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of Florida and Georgia. Shoreline positions from the mid-1800s through 2018 were used to update the shoreline change rates for Florida and Georgia using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. The shoreline positions and updated shoreline change rates calculated by the USGS provide actionable information to homeowners, coastal communities, and managers of public and private properties. This information can be used to improve resilience to erosion hazards. This information can now also be used by DSAS to estimate the future shoreline position. The forecasted shoreline position for the year 2031, and its estimated uncertainty, are provided in this data release. This forecast should be treated with extreme caution. The method used by DSAS to produce it is still preliminary. Initial testing of the method has shown that forecasts can be highly inaccurate, especially in dynamic areas (for example, near inlets). The degree of error in the forecasted shoreline position may be larger than the estimated uncertainty.
Map showing the extents of shoreline forecasting for Florida and Georgia.
Map showing the extents of shoreline forecasting for Florida and Georgia.

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DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier doi:10.5066/P9OWFEUH

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