Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Salmon are an important resource to the ecosystems, economy, and culture of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. However, salmon are under increasing stress due to warming water temperatures and decreasing stream flow. Groundwater is a major contributor to many streams that can help maintain fish habitat during low flows and contributes cooler water that regulates stream temperatures in the warm summer months. As the climate warms, the ability for groundwater to cool stream temperatures will likely become more critical to streams that are used by salmon, such as Beaver Creek near Kenai, Alaska.  

Preliminary analysis of historical streamflow data indicates that on average, Beaver Creek receives nearly 80% of its flow from groundwater. Groundwater is also the source of municipal drinking water for the City of Kenai and private residences outside of the city service area. It is anticipated that groundwater withdrawals will increase at a rate relative to the population projections for this area. This project will collect data in the Beaver Creek basin and build groundwater flow and stream temperature models to estimate stream discharge and temperature under historical and future climate conditions and various urbanization scenarios. These models can help inform local resource managers, including tribal, government, and private landowners, consider how stream temperature may respond to future climate conditions, water demands, and land use changes, and how temperature changes will impact salmon in Beaver Creek