Final Report for Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains
Kim Hall, 2023-03-15, Final Report for Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains.
Summary
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, with the potential to trigger significant and permanent state changes in both natural and human systems. Ecological transformations may stem from gradual changes, or may occur rapidly; for an example, an extensive drought-related mortality event may be coupled with regeneration conditions that are no longer able to support the re-establishment of the historic ecosystem. In addition to climate change, patterns of land use and human water use, and site-scale management history may be important contributors to the degree or pace of change. This project focuses on climate-related risks in the Great Plains of the U.S., a grassland dominated region with a complex history of ecological change, [...]
Summary
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, with the potential to trigger significant and permanent state changes in both natural and human systems. Ecological transformations may stem from gradual changes, or may occur rapidly; for an example, an extensive drought-related mortality event may be coupled with regeneration conditions that are no longer able to support the re-establishment of the historic ecosystem. In addition to climate change, patterns of land use and human water use, and site-scale management history may be important contributors to the degree or pace of change. This project focuses on climate-related risks in the Great Plains of the U.S., a grassland dominated region with a complex history of ecological change, human modifications, and extreme events. The management targets are diverse - connected prairie ecosystems, numerous rare species, and key ecological processes (fire, grazing disturbance), as well as human livelihoods and local communities that rely on functional networks of grasslands and embedded freshwater ecosystems.
My objective was to build from frameworks and science syntheses funded by previous USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) investments, and organize decision-relevant science on ecological impacts in the Great Plains in a way that supports workshop-scale conversations about climate impacts, and the potential for transformation. The intended audiences are tribes, land owners, land managers, and other key partners and stakeholders that are interested in working with Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) scientists and/or other experts to update land and water management practices, risk assessments, and conservation planning in ways that integrate climate science and tools. The original project concept was co-developed with collaborators Drs. Molly Cross and Lauren Oakes at the Wildlife Conservation Society, who are carrying out related work focused on communicating evidence of transformational change in Arctic Alaska.
I used literature review, complemented by discussions with other practitioners engaged in science translation, to develop these materials. My approach was to try to integrate information on key management priorities and science gaps with science characterizing climate impacts, especially in the context of considering multiple interacting drivers. I focus the examples on well-known events and management challenges, particularly the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. While discussions of the Dust Bowl tend to focus on the role of agricultural expansion and farming methods that increased the risk of wind-driven erosion following repeated droughts, recent research suggests pervasive additional impacts to natural systems, and that these natural systems were also important sources of dust and dust-related public health impacts. Reconsidering these impacts in a more ecological context, and considering how climate change and human management actions, especially water use, are potentially shifting today’s ecosystems past key thresholds, will hopefully help inform meaningful conservations on how to reduce these risks as increasing temperatures make future similar droughts more likely.
