Spreadsheet of quantiles of change factors at 242 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in Florida derived from downscaled climate datasets considering only the best models and all future emission scenarios evaluated (CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs.xlsx)

Dates

Publication Date: 2023-07-14
Start Date: 2020
End Date: 2059

Citation

Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz, 2023, Change factors to derive projected future precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 242 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in Florida (ver. 2.0, May 2024): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9Q3LEIL.

Summary

The Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 242 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme-precipitation depths fitted to extreme-precipitation data from downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach as described in https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093. The change factors correspond to the period 2020-59 (centered in the year 2040) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period. A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates quantiles of change factors derived from [...]

Summary

The Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 242 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme-precipitation depths fitted to extreme-precipitation data from downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach as described in https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093. The change factors correspond to the period 2020-59 (centered in the year 2040) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period.

A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates quantiles of change factors derived from downscaled climate datasets at grid cells closest to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in Florida considering only the best models and all the future emission scenarios evaluated as part of this project. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical precipitation depths fitted to extreme-precipitation data using a constrained maximum likelihood approach (CML) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) datasets, and a traditional maximum likelihood (ML) approach for the JupiterWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dataset. The quantiles of change factors are tabulated by duration (1, 3, and 7 days) and return period (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years) for percentiles (non-exceedance probabilities) of 5, 16, 50, 84, and 95 percent considering only the best models within each dataset and all the future emission scenarios evaluated. The emission scenarios evaluated include representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the downscaled climate datasets CORDEX, LOCA, and MACA. The emission scenarios evaluated for the JupiterWRF downscaled dataset include RCP8.5 from CMIP5, and shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Only daily durations are evaluated for JupiterWRF.

Best models are listed in Best_models_list.xlsx and were identified based on how well the models capture the climatology and interannual variability of four climate extreme indices using the Model Climatology Index (MCI) and the Model Variability Index (MVI) of Srivastava and others (2020). The four indices consist of annual maxima consecutive precipitation for durations of 1, 3, 5, and 7 days compared against the same indices computed based on the PRISM and SFWMD gridded precipitation datasets for five climate regions: climate region 1 in Northwest Florida, climate region 2 in North Florida, climate region 3 in North-Central Florida, climate region 4 in South-Central Florida, and climate region 5 in South Florida. The PRISM dataset is based on the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model interpolation method of Daly and others (2008). The South Florida Water Management District’s (SFWMD) precipitation super-grid is a gridded precipitation dataset developed by modelers at the agency for use in hydrologic modeling (SFWMD, 2005). This dataset is considered by the SFWMD as the best available gridded rainfall dataset for south Florida. Best models were selected based on MCI and MVI evaluated within each individual downscaled dataset. In addition, best models were selected by comparison across datasets and referred to as "ALL DATASETS" hereafter. Due to the small sample size, all models were considered the best models for the JupiterWRF dataset.

Contacts

Point of Contact :: Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz, U.S. Geological Survey, SOUTHEAST REGION
Originator :: Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz, Joann F. Dixon
Metadata Contact :: Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz, U.S. Geological Survey, SOUTHEAST REGION
Distributor :: U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase

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CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs_metadata.xml “CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs_metadata.xml” Original FGDC Metadata	View	2.46 MB	application/fgdc+xml
CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs.xlsx “CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs.xlsx”		605.07 KB	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet

Purpose

The primary purpose of this table is to provide quantiles for multiplicative change factors that can be applied to the official NOAA Atlas 14 depth-duration-frequency curves based on partial-duration series (PDS) to determine projected future extreme precipitation for events of a given duration and return period. This project is a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation.

Spreadsheet of quantiles of change factors at 242 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in Florida derived from downscaled climate datasets considering only the best models and all future emission scenarios evaluated (CFquantiles_2040_to_historical_best_models_allRCPs.xlsx)

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