Final Report: Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

In this work we find that the future of fire in the U.S. will likely be characterized by more frequent and larger fires in most regions due to the changing climate and more people starting fires in new places. For the period 2020-2060, we project an average increase in the number of fires (+56%) and burned area (+59%) across the U.S. compared to the historical period (1984-2019). Our models indicate that there will be more fires in the Eastern U.S., which historically has had low fire activity, while the Western U.S. will see more fires that are larger than the largest fires on record. These changes have substantial implications for ecosystem and fire management, disaster response and mitigation, and wildland fire public policy. The [...]