Evaluation of representative bird species' Landscape Capability models developed by the Designing Sustainable Landscapes project in the 13-state, northeastern region of the United States.
Dates
Start Date
2015-03-01
End Date
2017-07-31
Summary
The University of Massachusetts Designing Sustainable Landscapes (DSL) project (http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/dsl/dsl.html) is evaluating the capability of the landscape in the North Atlantic-Landscape Conservation Cooperative region to sustain wildlife populations under alternative climate change and urban growth scenarios. The project has developed Landscape Capability models (LC) for representative species, integrating climate niche models, habitat capability models, and prevalence models to assess the sustainability of the representative species in the 13 northeastern states under future landscape conditions. Modeled species were selected to be representative of habitat needs and ecosystem functions of a larger group of [...]
Summary
The University of Massachusetts Designing Sustainable Landscapes (DSL) project (http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/dsl/dsl.html) is evaluating the capability of the landscape in the North Atlantic-Landscape Conservation Cooperative region to sustain wildlife populations under alternative climate change and urban growth scenarios. The project has developed Landscape Capability models (LC) for representative species, integrating climate niche models, habitat capability models, and prevalence models to assess the sustainability of the representative species in the 13 northeastern states under future landscape conditions. Modeled species were selected to be representative of habitat needs and ecosystem functions of a larger group of species, so that management and conservation planning for the representative species would benefit the larger group. Eight representative bird species models were developed for hardwood- and spruce-fir-dominated forests and for forested wetlands and floodplains, which collectively cover nearly 75% of the North Atlantic-LCC region. Several representative species (e.g., Blackburnian Warbler, Louisiana Waterthrush, Ovenbird, Cerulean Warbler, Wood Thrush) for which Landscape Capability models have been completed or are in development are USFWS priority species of high conservation concern in coniferous, hardwood-dominated or mixed coniferous-deciduous forest in the northeastern region. Models for some representative species (e.g., Blackpoll Warbler, Northern Waterthrush) are expected to serve as surrogate models for other species (e.g., Bay-breasted Warbler, Cape May Warbler, Canada Warbler, Rusty Blackbird) with USFWS Northeast Region conservation priority designation. Although the LC models for most bird species (e.g., Blackburnian Warbler, Northern Waterthrush, Louisiana Waterthrush, Wood Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler) have been evaluated with recent eBird data, they have not been evaluated with data collected in independent, systematic, repeated surveys, nor has the transferability of the representative species models been evaluated for the species they are assumed to represent. Additionally, the application of DSL models to meet regional population objectives remains uncertain, because these models have not been tested for associations between abundance while accounting for detectability. Our analysis will incorporate detectability in evaluating the utility and predictive ability of DSL LC models and will facilitate transferability of these models into concrete conservation objectives and actions.
The University of Maine, Acadian Forest Birds project (funded by 2012 SSP, USFWS Refuges and Office of Migratory Birds, and others--see budget section) is examining relationships between forest bird community composition and forest harvest practices in coniferous and mixed coniferous-deciduous forests of the Northern Forest region. This region has experienced a large decrease in the extent of mature conifer and mature mixed forest patches, including greatly reduced sizes of residual patches of mature forest, increased predominance of deciduous regeneration, and increased fragmentation. These changes reflect the shift over the past 20 years from even-aged management and clear-cutting with subsequent herbicide application to a multi-decadal trend of increased reliance on partial harvesting. Selection harvest for the valuable large conifers can shift composition of residual forests towards a more deciduous composition, particularly in stands where selection harvesting has been practiced across multiple stand entries. The resulting forest conditions may limit avian breeding habitat capacity and long-term persistence within this region for numerous priority species, ultimately altering the composition of the forest bird communities. The Acadian Forest Birds project has generated a rich dataset of breeding bird point count surveys and forest stand characteristics in study areas in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, to evaluate response of the avian community to forest management approaches used in this region. Similar studies in the central Appalachian region (in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia) are using point count surveys to quantify abundance and occurrence of avian species breeding in hardwooddominated forests increasingly modified by surface mining, gas exploration, and timber harvests.
We propose to use the breeding bird point count survey data and survey site habitat data collected in our forest birds research projects described above to evaluate relationships between occurrence and abundance of recorded species in our study landscapes and the predictions of Landscape Capability for representative species in the 13 state northeastern region. We will conduct this evaluation hierarchically. First, we will evaluate Blackburnian Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler and Northern Waterthrush Landscape Capability models developed in the Connecticut River Valley pilot region with data collected in Northern Vermont (Silvio O. Conte National Wildlife Refuge (NWR)-Nulhegan basin Division). Second we will evaluate the Blackburnian Warbler, Northern Waterthrush, Wood Thrush, Ovenbird, and Louisiana Waterthrush models with breeding bird survey data collected in 8 of 13 states covered by the DSL project, targeting deciduous and coniferous species surveyed at ~2890 point count locations in ME, NH, VT, PA, WV, and VA. Third, we will evaluate models for species more typically surveyed with calling ground and display surveys (American Woodcock, Ruffed Grouse) with data collected during our point count surveys as well as additional survey data for these species recorded at refuges and wildlife management areas in the region. Fourth, we will evaluate transferability of the representative species' Landscape Capability models to the species they are designed to represent, focusing our efforts on the species for which we have the most robust datasets (e.g., American Redstart, Black-and-white Warbler, Black-throated Blue Warbler, Eastern Wood-pewee, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Bay-breasted Warbler, Blackthroated Green Warbler, Boreal Chickadee, Brown Creeper, Gray Jay, Palm Warbler, Purple Finch, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Canada Warbler, Veery). Finally, we will evaluate LC models under development for additional species for which we have robust point count datasets (e.g., Cerulean Warbler) pending completion of the models by the DSL project. Our analysis will focus on data collected in our point count surveys in ME, NH, and VT during 2013-2015 and in PA, VA, and WV during 2010-2015. We will incorporate additional data as appropriate and made available by colleagues and managers conducting surveys for avian species in states within the USFWS northeastern region.
This proposed project applies our forest bird and vegetation composition and structure surveys in an evaluation of DSL project products. Collectively, our evaluations will 1) compare the representative species model Landscape Capability assessments with independent, survey data systematically collected across the northeastern states region that encompasses the NALCC and a portion of the Appalachian-LCC, 2) compare the predicted Landscape Capability models with site-specific forest characteristics and examine poorly performing models to ascertain causes of poor fit (e.g., collaborate with the DSL project to examine components of the LC models in comparison with our occupancy models), as well as 3) evaluate relationships between the predictions of the representative species models and the occurrence of species they are designed to represent. Additionally, our proposed assessments of the representative species models with our field-collected data will 4) provide guidance about forest structural conditions that potentially support priority conifer and mixed conifer-deciduous forest associated species in the region.
Sustainability of avian species reliant on intact forest stands for breeding in northeastern North America increasingly is threatened by human modification of the landscape, as well as anticipated changes to forest composition driven by changing climate. The rapid expansion of the harvesting footprint and forest conversion to development in the northeastern region may be reducing habitat amount and degrading habitat configuration for avian species that require substantial landcover of mature or over-mature forest. The consequences of these shifts in within-stand structure and composition, and landscape composition and configuration on the avian community are uncertain. These effects are particularly uncertain in species tied to mature northern conifer and hardwood-dominated forests including forest species that the USFWS has identified as priority for conservation planning. Our bird surveys are documenting species of high conservation concern such as Bay-breasted Warbler, Cape May Warbler, and Canada Warbler, as well as DSL representative species such as Blackburnian Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler, Ovenbird, Wood Thrush, Louisiana Waterthrush, American Woodcock, Ruffed Grouse, and Northern Waterthrush. Assessing the capability of the landscape to support wildlife and to guide future habitat conservation in the northeastern region is a central purpose of the Landscape Change, Assessment, and Design model developed in the DSL project. Landscape Capability models combine habitat models estimating resource availability, climate niche models, and species distribution data (prevalence models) to estimate the capability of the landscape to sustain populations of representative and surrogate species (http://jamba.provost.ads.umass.edu/web/lcc/DSL_documentation_species.pdf). Confidence in and improvement of the accuracy of the LC model predictions require their evaluation with independent datasets. Although the representative species Landscape Capability models were evaluated with eBird data and a variety of assessment and validation metrics during their development, these models have not been evaluated with data collected in independent, systematic, repeated surveys, nor have they been evaluated for the species they represent. Our study will provide those evaluations.
An application of the LC models is to guide land management to meet population objectives for the focal species. Evaluation of species' models with independent point counts of breeding birds and forest vegetation survey data collected at field sites within the northeastern states region will enable translation of the models into habitat and population management actions that can be applied onsite. Our evaluation of relationships between forest harvest practices and landscape development trends increasingly employed in the NA-LCC and central Appalachian regions, stand structural characteristics, and the response of forest bird communities to these forest manipulations provides a unique opportunity to understand the applicability of the selected Landscape Capability models in forests undergoing shifts in withinstand structure and composition, landscape composition, and landscape configuration. Our goal is to improve LC models to better reflect the relationships between avian habitat quality and avian population response and land management approaches that manipulate forest age and structure, in the context of changing land use practices in the northeastern forest landscape.
Objectives:
The goal of this study is to evaluate relationships between the abundance/density of representative species and Landscape Capability model predictions developed by the DSL project of the NA-LCC. We will evaluate representative species' models for Blackburnian Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler, Northern Waterthrush, Louisiana Waterthrush, Ovenbird, Wood Thrush, Ruffed Grouse, and American Woodcock with data collected from the mixed coniferous-deciduous Acadian Forest Region of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont and the hardwood-dominated forests of Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Additionally, we will use our breeding bird point count surveys to evaluate the applicability of these representative models to the species they represent.
Specific objectives of the study are:
Test for relationships between abundance of representative species and DSL Landscape Capability products to enable practitioners to set concrete conservation goals. We will evaluate relationships between the abundance of Blackburnian Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler, Northern Waterthrush, Louisiana Waterthrush, Ovenbird, and Wood Thrush and NA-LCC Designing Sustainable Landscapes project Landscape Capability model predictions for these species. Evaluations will use breeding bird point count survey data we have collected within the Upper Connecticut River watershed (Silvio O. Conte NWR-Nulhegan Basin Division, VT), as well as point count breeding bird survey data we have collected across ME, NH, PA, VA, and WV. We will conduct these evaluations initially with data collected within the northern region of the Connecticut River watershed and then expand to include data collected in our study areas across the region.
Evaluate relationships between predictions of American Woodcock and Ruffed Grouse representative species Landscape Capability models and occurrence predictions from our breeding bird point count survey data supplemented with singing ground surveys (American Woodcock) and drumming routes (Ruffed Grouse) conducted in the northeastern hardwooddominated forest region.
Evaluate Landscape Capability models under development for additional species (e.g., Cerulean Warbler) for which we have point count data and after upon completion of the models by the DSL project (scheduled for completion by 2015). Evaluation will follow the approach as indicated in Objective 1.
Evaluate relationships between predictions of representative species Landscape Capability models evaluated in Objectives 1-3 and the species they represent, targeting species for which we have collected breeding bird point count survey data in our ongoing studies in the Upper Connecticut River watershed (Silvio O. Conte NWR-Nulhegan Basin Division, VT), as well as point count breeding bird survey data we have collected elsewhere within ME, NH, PA, VA, and WV to evaluate the models from watershed to regional extents.
Provide information to managers regarding relationships of priority, forest-associated avian species populations and forest structure and landscape conditions to inform conservation and land management planning and actions for these species in the 13 northeastern state region that includes our study areas.
