Final Report: The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region
Dates
Publication Date
2024-01-31
Citation
Owen P Mckenna, and Imtiaz Rangwala, 2024-01-31, Final Report: The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region: National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers.
Summary
An estimated 50–80% of North America’s ducks use the millions of wetland basins in the Prairie Pothole Region as breeding habitat. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of grasslands and wetlands in the United States portion of the Prairie Pothole Region with the primary purpose to support breeding duck habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that wetlands that have historically provided the highest value to breeding ducks will continue to do so into the future. The dynamic nature of climate in the Northern Great Plains and continued increases in air temperatures and precipitation variability have the potential [...]
Summary
An estimated 50–80% of North America’s ducks use the millions of wetland basins in the Prairie Pothole Region as breeding habitat. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of grasslands and wetlands in the United States portion of the Prairie Pothole Region with the primary purpose to support breeding duck habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that wetlands that have historically provided the highest value to breeding ducks will continue to do so into the future. The dynamic nature of climate in the Northern Great Plains and continued increases in air temperatures and precipitation variability have the potential to disrupt the desired outcomes of management agencies. The focus of this study is to better understand the sensitivity of prairie-pothole wetlands to climate change and help USFWS evaluate potential impacts to breeding ducks. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. We identified divergent future climate scenarios to consider important future climate uncertainties and simulated breeding duck pair responses to climate-driven impacts on wetland water levels. We have developed model estimates of future duck pair distribution under four climate scenarios for mid and end of century and currently are incorporating these estimates into the USFWS “predictive maps” that are used by refuge managers to prioritize wetland acquisition and management decisions. Additionally, our future duck-pair projections are being incorporated by another research team to develop economic optimization models to aid future conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region.
