Projections of Rangeland Fractional Component Cover Across Western Northern American Rangelands for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s Time-Periods

Publication Date

2024-03-14

Start Date

2020-01-01

End Date

2085-01-01

Rigge, M., Postma, K., and Bunde, B., 2024, Projections of Rangeland Fractional Component Cover Across Western Northern American Rangelands for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s Time-Periods: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P134RA6V.

Type: Related Primary Publication

We use USGS RCMAP fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups (sagebrush, shrub, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, tree, and bare ground, Rigge et al. 2024) and climate data from 1985 to 2023 in conjunction with soils (ISRIC – World Soil Information) and topography data to develop models describing the empirical spatio-temporal variation in cover across the sagebrush biome of the Western U.S (Rigge et al. 2021). Our primary objective is to apply the models developed over the 1985-2023 reference period to future climate conditions based on two emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) (AdaptWest Project. 2022) to evaluate change in functional group abundance within the respective range of each across an unprecedented extent. The RCP climate projections represent the average of 15 models (CanESM2, ACCESS1.0, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk 3.6, GFDL-CM3, INM-CM4, MRI-CGCM3, MIROC-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, GISS-E2R). We then model component cover under these scenarios and evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to the reference period. The projections can be used to inform management to prepare for future vegetation composition and cover through the prioritization of conservation and restoration and shed light on species range shifts.

• Earth Resources Observation and Science Center (EROS)
• Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP)
• USGS Data Release Products