Projected changes to spring phenological indicators (such as first leaf and first bloom) are of importance to assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species. The risk of false springs (when a killing freeze occurs after plants of interest bloom), which can cause ecological and economic damage, is also projected to change across much of the United States. Given the coarse nature of global climate models, downscaled climate projections have commonly been used to assess local changes in spring phenological indices. Few studies that examine the influence of the sources of uncertainty sources in the downscaling approach on projections of phenological changes. This study examines the influence of sources of uncertainty [...]
