Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were robust to assumed [...]
