Very High Resolution Climate Projections for the Islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i
Very Fine Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Past and Future Climates for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Islands of O`ahu and Kaua`i: A Pacific Islands CSC Funding Opportunity 2013 Project
The Hawaiian Islands are home to many people and host a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, but they are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced very high resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i, providing information on key variables of interest [...]
Summary
The Hawaiian Islands are home to many people and host a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, but they are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands.
This project produced very high resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i, providing information on key variables of interest to decision makers such as rainfall, air temperature, and tropical cyclone patterns. Modeling results suggest that in addition to becoming significantly warmer, the islands are expected to experience an increasing number of heavy rainfall events and tropical cyclones through the current century. These data will aid local decision makers as they plan for impacts to human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems and seek to reduce risk through effective adaptation.
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Oahu, HI_MPD.jpg “View of Oahu North Shore - Public Domain”
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Purpose
Throughout the State of Hawai`i, there is widespread public and official concern about the impacts of anticipated anthropogenic climate change over the coming decades. Such a concern is present globally, but the Hawaiian Islands have special issues in terms of vulnerability of their small, geographically isolated watersheds and ecosystems. The Hawaiian Islands are notable in that they have received considerably less attention from the climate modeling community than most other populated areas of the world. Due to their small dimensions and steep topography, the Hawaiian Islands are poorly resolved in current state-of-the-art global models used for long-term climate simulations. This project will apply a very fine-resolution regional model to downscale global model results to provide the best possible representations of recent past climate and projections of future climate. These simulations will include the key variables needed for land management decisions including rainfall, surface sensible heat fluxes and evaporation, radiative fluxes, wind, and temperature at small horizontal scales for Islands of Oahu and Hawai`i. The complete high-resolution simulations, as well as specialized products such as projected flooding and drought climatologies, will be provided via a web portal to any interested parties.