The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona Game and Fish Department, [...]
Summary
The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations.
Project scientists are working with the Arizona Game and Fish Department, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners to understand the effects of changing resource availability on four grassland species: American pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), Gunnison’s prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamat), and Gambel’s Quail (Callipepla gambelii).
The project team will use historical climate data, satellite data on vegetation greenness, and field data on the locations and abundance of wildlife populations to explore the links among climate variables, food availability, and wildlife populations. The team then will use climate models to project how forage, and ultimately wildlife populations, are likely to respond to projected changes in climate.
This project will help inform landscape-level planning, establish conservation priorities, and suggest management approaches for adapting to shifting climate and resource availability for wildlife. For example, results of this research could be used by state wildlife agencies to guide management of grasslands for species of greatest conservation need or economically important game species, by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish high-priority locations within the National Wildlife Refuge System, and by conservation organizations to prioritize conservation easements and land purchases in grasslands likely to remain high-quality habitat for wildlife.
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ToiyabeNtlForest_NV_AlanCressler.jpg “Toiyabe National Forest, NV; Credit: Alan Cressler”
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Purpose
Some types of climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are projected to occur more frequently in the southwestern United States (Southwest) as global climate changes. These extremes can have substantial effects on wildlife habitat, especially the availability of food. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations increasingly will require information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective interventions that are likely to sustain wildlife populations.
This project will use historical climate data, satellite data on vegetation greenness, and field data on the spatial locations and abundance of wildlife populations to explore the links among climate variables, food availability, and wildlife populations. We then will use climate models to project how forage, and ultimately wildlife populations, are likely to respond to projected changes in climate. This project will focus on desert grasslands, which support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. We will model the effects of changing resource availability on four grassland species: American pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), Gunnison’s prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamat), and Gambel’s Quail (Callipepla gambelii).
The approaches and methods developed in this project may be relevant to land cover types, geographic areas, and species beyond Southwest grasslands. This project will help inform landscape-level planning, establish conservation priorities, and suggest management approaches for adapting to shifting climate and resource availability for wildlife. For example, results of this research could be used by state wildlife agencies to guide management of grasslands for species of greatest conservation need or economically important game species, by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish high-priority locations within the National Wildlife Refuge System, and by conservation organizations to prioritize conservation easements and land purchases in grasslands likely to remain high-quality habitat for wildlife.
Project Extension
parts
type
Technical Summary
value
This project seeks to provide wildlife managers, natural resource planners, and conservation organizations in the southwestern United States (Southwest) with long-term, spatially explicit projections of resource availability for herbivores in desert grasslands that will support the design of effective conservation strategies. Some forms of climate extremes, including droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur with increasing frequency and magnitude in the Southwest. Research on how desert grasslands and the wildlife communities they support are likely to respond to these climatic changes can have substantial ecological and social benefits. Models of wildlife responses to climate change largely have focused on projected changes in average temperature and precipitation, but changes in resource availability may be more relevant to wildlife and more readily affected by conservation and management actions. Remotely sensed phenology metrics are responsive to climate and hydrological variables and can serve as useful indicators of resource availability for herbivores, but long-term projections of phenology under future climate scenarios are not yet available. The main components of this project are development of statistical models of the relations between historical climate and remotely sensed phenology variables; projections of future phenology on the basis of these statistical models, with downscaled climate projections as model inputs; assessment of relations between space use, abundance, or occupancy of focal wildlife species and phenology variables; and projection of changes in space use, abundance, or occupancy of these species on the basis of future phenology scenarios. Analyses will focus on grassland species considered regional management priorities because of their rarity, economic importance, or ecological role as a keystone species. Project participants include the Arizona Game and Fish Department, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
projectStatus
In Progress
Budget Extension
annualBudgets
year
2017
totalFunds
98686.48
year
2018
totalFunds
71509.32
parts
type
Award Type
value
Grant
type
Award Number
value
G17AP00098
totalFunds
170195.8
Preview Image
Toiyabe National Forest, NV; Credit: Alan Cressler