Final Report: Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI
Dates
Date Received
2017-06-30
Citation
Final Project Report: Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI: .
Summary
This project used climate models to produce projections of increases in sea temperatures for coral reef areas in Micronesia and abroad. The results suggest that projected sea temperature increases will cause coral bleaching to occur annually in Guam and CNMI by the early 2040s, if current greenhouse gas emissions growth continues. Coral reefs are expected to change dramatically once severe bleaching occurs annually, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services. Reefs in Micronesia would have at least a decade more time to adapt or acclimate to climate change if the emissions reductions pledges made under the Paris Agreement become reality. Importantly, the projections reveal that coral reef futures, with respect [...]
Summary
This project used climate models to produce projections of increases in sea temperatures for coral reef areas in Micronesia and abroad. The results suggest that projected sea temperature increases will cause coral bleaching to occur annually in Guam and CNMI by the early 2040s, if current greenhouse gas emissions growth continues. Coral reefs are expected to change dramatically once severe bleaching occurs annually, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services. Reefs in Micronesia would have at least a decade more time to adapt or acclimate to climate change if the emissions reductions pledges made under the Paris Agreement become reality. Importantly, the projections reveal that coral reef futures, with respect to exposure to the temperatures that cause coral bleaching, vary greatly on local scales (10s of km). Therefore, the projections can be used to inform conservation and management planning, aiding managers in identifying and targeting actions to where they will most reduce vulnerability to climate change. The projections we developed include all coral reef areas and have been presented within a published scientific article, and the data and results have been made available via interactive tools online. The projections were summarized and presented to conservationists and natural resource managers in Guam and CNMI, raising awareness of what climate change will mean for ecosystem goods and services provision. Climate impact summaries we produced for Guam and CNMI were used as outreach and education tools and discussed with dozens of representatives of community groups, conservation and management agencies. The downscaled projections and climate impact summaries are being used in Guam and CNMI to develop plans to mitigate impacts caused by military training and other human activities. Project outputs are also already being used throughout the U.S. and internationally to identify relative climate refugia that represent coral reef conservation priorities.
