Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factorsis a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicitCormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects ofenvironmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in thespatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus truesurvival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher thanpreviously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S ¼ 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species.However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S¼0.54), our only study taxonthat migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin couldbe experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of ourstudy species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minorvariation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and theavailability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species.Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adultshorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers oroverwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.
