Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest
Wildfire Projections in Interior Alaska (Host Agreement project)
Dates
Start Date
2017-08-01
End Date
2022-07-31
Release Date
2017
Summary
Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project is to support short-term [...]
Summary
Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees.
Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project is to support short-term wildfire planning in the region through the use of seasonal forecast modeling, and to support long-term planning using projections of future climate conditions.
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Fire_BorealForest_STRupp_AKCSC.jpg “Boreal forest fire - Credit: Scott Rupp”
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Purpose
Wildfires are a natural occurrence in the Boreal Forest and are managed in Alaska each summer. The seasonal variability of wildfire is driven by extremes with one year have large area burned (greater than one million acres) and followed by many, even decades with little fire activity. Managing such extremes is a challenge especially in the context of anticipated climate change since planning needs to occur long in advance to stage resources and establish budgets. Fire danger ratings can be evaluated in observations and future climate projections to aid long-term planning while shorter-term forecasts for the upcoming year can be examined with seasonal forecast models.