The onset of spring, represented by first leaf and first bloom, is a critical indicator of the health and growth of ecosystems. Studies have shown that the timing of first leaf and first bloom has shifted to earlier in the year across the U.S., impacting species that time their own life history events based on spring onset. False springs occur when temperatures briefly warm and “trick” plants into opening their buds, only to be followed by a hard freeze that can kill the young, sensitive buds. These events can cause significant damage to ecosystems as well as agriculture. For example, a false spring in the Southeast in 2007 caused $2 billion in damage to crops. Some projections of future climate conditions have shown that the occurrence [...]
Summary
The onset of spring, represented by first leaf and first bloom, is a critical indicator of the health and growth of ecosystems. Studies have shown that the timing of first leaf and first bloom has shifted to earlier in the year across the U.S., impacting species that time their own life history events based on spring onset. False springs occur when temperatures briefly warm and “trick” plants into opening their buds, only to be followed by a hard freeze that can kill the young, sensitive buds. These events can cause significant damage to ecosystems as well as agriculture. For example, a false spring in the Southeast in 2007 caused $2 billion in damage to crops. Some projections of future climate conditions have shown that the occurrence of false springs will increase in the future, while others have shown that they will decrease.
To date, the studies that have examined changes in spring onset and false springs have used climate projections that were not designed for use in the South Central region. The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of future changes in the timing of spring onset and the frequency and occurrence of false springs in the South Central U.S. Researchers will use projections of future climate conditions that were designed specifically for use in this region. The results of this project will provide the region’s natural resource managers with information on projected future changes to these ecologically-relevant indices, and will provide guidance on best practices for using climate projections to model changes in spring onset and false springs. Together, this information will inform ecosystem management and adaptation planning throughout the South Central region.
Click on title to download individual files attached to this item.
DolanFalls3_TX_AlanCressler.jpg “Dolan Falls. Credit: Alan Cressler”
568.22 KB
image/jpeg
Project Extension
parts
type
Technical Summary
value
The onset of spring growth (indicated by first leaf and first bloom) is a critical indicator of the health and change in ecosystems. In addition, false springs can cause significant damage to agriculture and ecosystems. Recent studies have shown that first leaf and first bloom are occurring earlier in the year and false springs are occurring less frequently. Other studies suggest that first leaf and first bloom will happen earlier in the year in the future and false springs may occur more frequently. Changes to the first leaf and first bloom can lead to phenology mismatches between species, incursion by invasive species, and effects to migratory patterns. In addition, false springs also cause numerous ecological impacts such as damage to plant tissue. Therefore, changes to first leaf, first bloom, and false springs are critical to understand for the continued management of ecosystems and species. However, prior studies have used only limited information from the climate projections to determine projected changes in all three of these ecologicallyrelevant indices. In addition, prior studies have used climate projections designed for use in regions outside the south-central United States. To fill the critical need, this pilot project will provide projections of first leaf, first bloom, and false springs using climate projections created specifically for the southcentral United States. In addition, this pilot project will provide recommendations to USGS regarding how sensitive these ecological indices are to the climate projections and appropriate use in the future. Available results and data from this project will inform ecologists with critical interest in spring phenology and false springs, improving impact assessments and adaptation decision making in the southcentral United States.