Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios
Dates
Start Date
2002
End Date
2099
Publication Date
2023-04-20
Citation
Berio Fortini, L., and Kaiser, L.R., 2023, Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9VOTDH3.
Summary
One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. [...]
Summary
One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Here we provide rasters that contain the probability of rainfall exceeding infiltration capacity in each grid cell at 90 m. We have included rasters of excess rainfall probabilities for current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios as well as by each individual land cover class considered.
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landing_page_hist_prob-IMG.png “Map of potential risk of excess rainfall on the main Hawaiian Islands at 90 m. ”
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Related External Resources
Type: Related Primary Publication
Berio Fortini, L., Kaiser, L.R., Perkins, K.S., Xue, L., and Wang, Y., 2023, Estimating the Impact of Climate and Vegetation Changes on Runoff Risk across the Hawaiian Landscape: Conservation, v. 3, no. 2, p. 291–302, https://doi.org/10.3390/conservation3020020 .
While runoff analyses have been done for specific watersheds, no previous work has taken this landscape level approach. This information is pertinent to federal, state, and non-governmental land managers and city planners alike to understand how changes in land cover can influence runoff and erosion, which can be ecologically and economically costly, resulting in both ecosystem and infrastructure damage.
Preview Image
Map of potential risk of excess rainfall on the main Hawaiian Islands at 90 m.