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Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change has altered and is projected to continue to altering historic regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To better understand the combined impacts of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with United States Fish and Wildlife Service managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the Midwestern United States. The map is intended to aid in the prioritization of locations needing support for adaptation planning and to help managers grapple with the impacts that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies....
Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing threats to habitats and species and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs is voluntary, and capacity/expertise limitations at state agencies have resulted in varied and often only partial consideration of climate change impacts. In response, the MW CASC will conduct literature reviews to assess climate stressors and impacts to habitats and key species and to identify relevant adaptation actions for 13 different Level 2/3 EPA Ecoregions contained within the MW CASC area states. This work will provide a foundation for future habitat vulnerability assessments. ...
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Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate...
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The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends will continue, such that the warming Midwest will experience wetter winters and springs, shortened snow seasons, and extreme year-round precipitation in the future. Despite this high level of confidence in climate trends, there is limited knowledge of how these will translate to flood likelihood and the associated societal...
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Virtually all species are experiencing the effects of modern climate change. Climate-induced extinction rates are accelerating, and up to one-sixth of species are predicted to go extinct by the end of this century. Given the unprecedented rate of modern climate change, species will be increasingly unable to shift in lockstep with emerging climate spaces, and as a result, phenotypic variation (e.g., body size, coat color, morphology) is a critical pathway by which species can adapt. Ecologists have documented remarkable examples of phenotypic plasticity in nature (changes in an organism's behavior, morphology, and physiology in response to a unique environment), but when the degree of plasticity can no longer match...
Our research focused on the conservation of ecologically and culturally important species – snowshoe hare and ruffed grouse – in relation to a changing winter climate. Our research continued a highly productive, long-term study at the Sandhill Wildlife Area, a state-owned property dedicated to wildlife conservation and actively managed for timber harvest. By conducting our research within an actively managed landscape, we identified those habitats in which climate-vulnerable species are capable of persisting. Our overarching hypothesis was that recent climate change (loss of snow cover) is exerting strong directional selection and inducing rapid phenotypic change on important prey species of northern forests, but...
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Species are adapted to particular environmental conditions, but are threatened as climate change shifts habitat conditions. One way species can respond is by moving to new suitable locations, known as climate-driven range shifts. But some species can move more easily and/or more quickly than others, and some landscapes are more difficult to cross. In the upper Midwest, the movement potential of many species is reduced by broad expanses of row-crop agriculture, roads and other types of development that fragment the remaining habitat. It is important to sustain and improve connectivity across landscapes so they can continue to support biodiversity and ecosystem services like water filtration, carbon storage, pollinator...
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The Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center’s (MW CASC) Strategic Science Agenda will guide the CASC’s work through 2026, helping to identify which projects should be funded and which partnerships need to be cultivated. Currently, the Strategic Science Agenda is at an interim stage. The Interim Science Priorities for the Midwest CASC are structured around five management challenges: 1. Heavy precipitation events and drought 2. Loss of winter 3. Altered hydrological regimes 4. Novel terrestrial landscapes 5. Barriers to and opportunities for adaptation For each management challenge, there are approximately 10 science priorities., for a total of 51 interim science priorities. We are conducting a technical assessment...
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The Midwest CASC consortium’s vision is to advance climate adaptation science and practice across all components of the climate adaptation cycle by pursuing region-specific, collaborative, synthesis projects that build on past work, provide new resources and tools, and catalyze adaptation capacity across the Midwest. The Midwest CASC consortium pursues synthesis research projects that address emerging topics in climate adaptation with potential for national-scale replicability and benefits. Each synthesis project is based at a Midwest CASC consortium institution, and is guided by a collaborative working group of three or more consortium members and a postdoctoral research scholar. Projects must address USGS priorities...
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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
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Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. The research team will model landscape level changes...
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Cold-water fish species such as trout and salmon are highly valued components of many stream ecosystems in Michigan and the Great Lakes region and are sensitive to rising stream temperatures. For example, the timing of spawning and development rates of these species are affected by stream temperature from late fall through spring. Historically, stream temperature modeling has focused on air temperature and solar radiation as the main drivers of stream temperature, while streams that are fed by groundwater are often viewed as being less affected by climate warming. However, as the climate continues to warm, groundwater temperatures could also rise, thereby contributing to warming stream temperatures and reducing...
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Species Status Assessments provide vital information to US Fish and Wildlife for improving considerations for climate change impacts. In the constrained timeline of species listing decisions, it is not always feasible to conduct lengthy quantitative analyses so there is a need for better resources to provide input for rapid decision-making. In this project, the team will work with species status assessment teams to address direct and indirect effects of climate change on priority species chosen through conversations with US Fish and Wildlife regional offices. This project aims to provide an overview of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on species life cycle, survival, species interactions, and habitat...
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Manoomin, or wild rice, is an essential, sacred species for Native people throughout the Upper Great Lakes region, who have relied on the plant for food and ceremony for hundreds of years. Manoomin is also important to non-Native people, who also harvest it and benefit from the wildlife sustained by it. Manoomin is an indicator of ecosystem health—if manoomin is healthy so is the surrounding ecosystem. Unfortunately, this aquatic grass has declined across much of its range due to multiple human-caused stressors, including changes to water levels in the lakes and streams in which manoomin grows. Climate change will further disrupt water levels, most directly through changes in precipitation, but also through climate-driven...
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Moose are an economically and culturally important species in Minnesota. Like many species, however, moose are experiencing reductions in distribution and abundance across the Midwest as a result of climate change and habitat loss. Moose populations have declined by 60% since 2006, in part because of thermal heat stress in warming summers and increased frequency of contact with white-tailed deer that transmit fatal parasites. Forest managers are looking for actionable strategies to improve moose habitat in the near-term while also planning for future forest conditions in a warming climate. To address this need, this project brings together researchers and managers to examine how climate adaptive forest management...
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Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation concern and is currently under consideration for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Recent analyses suggest that common, widespread species may also be declining. Yet robust evidence for general declines is patchy and the causes are difficult to discern. Understanding the relative importance of climate, land...
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Climate change is making coldwater stream fish and their habitats more vulnerable than ever. In the Midwest, warming stream temperatures threaten recreational fishing for brook trout in their native range around the Great Lakes. To ensure that brook trout populations will persist into the future, it is crucial to focus management on areas where brook trout populations are most resilient, and to conduct landscape-level management to increase their resiliency. Resilient coldwater streams have thermal refugia areas where stream temperatures stay colder thanks to influxes of cold water from other water sources, such as groundwater. Existing methods to identify these thermal refugia have relied on either thermal gauges,...
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Many animal species have unique characteristics that allow them to survive during winter. For example, the snowshoe hare changes its fur color from brown to white to camouflage better in winter months, and the ruffed grouse roosts under the snow to stay warm and hidden in winter. These winter-adapted species, however, are facing new challenges as climate change is resulting in shorter winters and rapid declines in snowpack. Shorter winters pose a significant threat to winter-adapted species that are used to living in, under, or on top of a protective blanket of snow. Wildlife managers are tasked with conserving these species, yet studies understanding how specific management actions can enhance species' ability...
map background search result map search result map Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation, Ecohydrology, and Management of Manoomin (Wild Rice) Watersheds Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Characterizing Climate Change Impacts on Species Ecology to Support Species Status Assessments State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Groundwater and Stream Temperature Modeling to Assess the Effect of Warming Temperatures on Coldwater Fish Synthesis Research to Address Emerging Topics in Climate Adaptation Technical Assessment of the Interim Science Agenda: Survey Responses The Role of Phenotypic Plasticity in the Adaptive Capacity of Midwestern Fish and Wildlife Groundwater and Stream Temperature Modeling to Assess the Effect of Warming Temperatures on Coldwater Fish Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation, Ecohydrology, and Management of Manoomin (Wild Rice) Watersheds Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Technical Assessment of the Interim Science Agenda: Survey Responses State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Synthesis Research to Address Emerging Topics in Climate Adaptation The Role of Phenotypic Plasticity in the Adaptive Capacity of Midwestern Fish and Wildlife Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Characterizing Climate Change Impacts on Species Ecology to Support Species Status Assessments