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As the dominant force that sets the structure and function of most Pacific Northwest forests, fire is likely to be the major catalyst of forest change in a warming climate. Rising temperatures, decreased snowpack, and earlier snowmelt are expected to lead to longer fire seasons, drier fuel, and an increase in the area burned by wildfires in the future. Forest managers therefore need information on how wildfire patterns and forests will change as the climate warms, in order to guide management activities that can sustain the important ecosystem services that forests provide – including timber production, carbon storage, improved water quality, and recreational opportunities. To address this need, researchers developed...
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Oregon’s Upper Klamath Basin is one of the warmest watersheds in the Pacific Northwest. Despite its naturally warm waters, the basin supports abundant redband trout. These are some of the largest-bodied trout in the entire U.S., and are a culturally and economically important species, providing the last remaining subsistence fishery for the Klamath Tribes and drawing recreational anglers. The ability of this coldwater species to survive in one of the region’s warmest watersheds could hold valuable clues for conservation in the face of warming global temperatures, which represents one of the biggest threats to North America’s coldwater fish. Previous research has found that redband trout rely heavily on spring-fed...
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The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in the southwestern United States. Consistent water level declines in Colorado River Basin reservoirs have focused research attention on the long-term changes in winter precipitation and the timing of snowmelt and runoff. Research on how warming temperatures affect winter precipitation and spring snowmelt is ongoing, however, less attention has been given to changes in spring and summer precipitation which also affects water supply, plant growth, and competition between native and non-native plants, and, in turn affects wildfire dynamics and wildlife habitat. The amount and timing of summer precipitation is largely influenced by variation in the North American...
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The Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership (SW FireCAP) is working to advance fire and climate adaptation in the southwestern U.S. Focused on cross-organizational collaboration and leveraging resources, the partnership facilitates climate adaptation planning by “sharing Indigenous and Western knowledge perspectives, being inclusive, and building trust.” The Collaborative Conservation and Adaptation Strategies Toolbox (CCAST) is a similar effort, established to document effective conservation initiatives and develop decision-support tools. Both initiatives are focused on showcasing high quality science-to-policy research and innovative, on-the-ground conservation management practices and promoting peer-to-peer...
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Water is a key resource in Alaska: Although it comprises 17 percent of the country’s land area, Alaska contains more than 40 percent of the United States’ surface water. Climate changes are anticipated to greatly impact water processes (hydrology), including water temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns and amounts. Understanding the likely impacts of climate change on hydrology is an important first step toward understanding consequent impacts on natural and human communities. The purpose of this project was to assist with the development of a coordinated state-wide approach for monitoring temperature in streams and lakes. This process was guided by the recommendations of a workshop involving hydrologists,...
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HawaiÊ»i is home to a rich diversity of native plants, about 90 percent of which are found nowhere else in the world. However, changing climate conditions may reduce the amount of suitable habitat for native plants and contribute to the spread of invasive plant species. The goal of this project was to better understand how Hawaiian native and invasive plants will respond to climate change. Scientists focused on 10 important native and five important invasive plant species, using over 35 years of data from thousands of locations in Hawai‘i to assess the plants’ preferred climate conditions and model their likely best future habitat based on climate change projections. The resulting maps and findings provide an initial...
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HawaiÊ»i is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. HawaiÊ¿i is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into carefully reintroducing thousands of rare plants into protected forests, but the ability of reintroduced populations to persist over the long-term is unknown, especially as climate change shifts patterns of temperature, rainfall and species interactions. Managers need more information to identify locations that will be the most suitable...
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Hawaiian forest birds play important roles in many ecological processes. For example, 61% of native flowering Hawaiian plant species are either bird pollinated or dispersed through ingestion by birds. However, native bird communities across Hawaiʻi continue to decline despite efforts to control predators and enhance habitat. These declines are, in part, due to the mosquito-borne avian pox and avian malaria. Scientific forecasts of the impact of avian disease on native bird populations under various climate change scenarios predict severe declines and species extinctions in all remaining forest habitat within the next 50 years. While little can currently be done to mitigate the effects of climate change on disease...
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HawaiÊ»i’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and malaria development. With rising temperatures in those upslope areas due to climate change, mosquitoes and disease are starting to be found at higher elevations. In addition to warming temperatures, increasingly dry conditions change stream flow allowing for the creation of pools that provide additional larval mosquito habitat in...
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The Republic of Palau, a Freely Associated State of the U.S. and a global leader in ocean conservation, recently implemented the Palau National Marine Sanctuary, which closed 80% of its ocean to fishing. As offshore fish become scarcer in the domestic market, managers have begun to worry about increased harvesting pressure on already overfished nearshore environments. This pressure, in addition to stressors from land-use change, sea-level rise, and warming oceans, could threaten the food and economic security of many Palauans. However, adaptively managing stressors in an integrated way can mitigate declines and even promote recovery, while still being cost-effective, resulting in direct benefits to coastal communities....
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Much of the biodiversity of the southeastern U.S. is found in grasslands, including meadows, prairies, glades, and savannas. These grasslands provide vital habitat to a variety of plants and animals, but many grassland types have undergone over 90% loss due to fire suppression and urban sprawl. The remaining grassland patches—remnants—now face emerging threats from invasive species and climate change. The project researchers recently convened a workshop with grassland managers and experts from across the Southeast, from Texas to West Virginia to Florida, to identify the most pressing science needs to effectively manage and restore grasslands over the coming decades. This project directly addresses those needs by...
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The onset of spring, represented by first leaf and first bloom, is a critical indicator of the health and growth of ecosystems. Studies have shown that the timing of first leaf and first bloom has shifted to earlier in the year across the U.S., impacting species that time their own life history events based on spring onset. False springs occur when temperatures briefly warm and “trick” plants into opening their buds, only to be followed by a hard freeze that can kill the young, sensitive buds. These events can cause significant damage to ecosystems as well as agriculture. For example, a false spring in the Southeast in 2007 caused $2 billion in damage to crops. Some projections of future climate conditions have...
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Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as the region’s climate changes. The distribution of sugar maple could move north into Canada and the sap flow season may become shorter in the future. Not only could these changes affect producers and consumers...
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This study set out to answer the question: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” To accomplish this, the study gathered existing stream temperature data, identified data gaps, deployed stream temperature monitoring devices, and developed and tested a stream temperature model that could be regionalized across the Northeast domain. We partnered with another funded project team, led by Jana Stewart at WI USGS to collect data from over 10,000 locations across the climate science center domain. This collection effort aided in identifying data gaps where...
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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The scaled quail is an important species that indicates the overall health of the habitats they occupy in the arid Southwest. Some populations are declining, which may be linked to the long-term trend in warmer, drier conditions and reduced monsoonal rainfall across their range. It’s believed that temperature and humidity levels have been too high, reducing the survival of eggs and chicks. Climate models project decreasing rainfall and warming temperatures to continue for the region, so understanding this linkage is becoming increasingly critical. To address this need, researchers sought to measure the success of scaled quail nests at locations across their range, to determine if nest success is related to temperature,...
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Snowshoe hares are the primary food source of the federally threatened Canada lynx. In western Montana for example, snowshoe hare make up 96% of lynx diet. In fact, hares are critical players in forest ecosystems because most carnivores prey on them. The main way that snowshoe hares escape predation is through camouflage. In response to changes in day length, snowshoe hares molt seasonally, changing color from brown to white in the winter to blend in with the snowfall and hide from predators. However, due to shorter snow seasons caused by recent changes in climate, snowshoe hares are turning white before it snows, making them more visible to predators. Because 21 other species around the world also undergo these...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...
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Climate change has emerged as a key environmental concern of the 21st century and a major challenge for land and wildlife managers. Although scientists have made tremendous progress in predicting the impact of climate change on a regional and global scale, drilling down such projections to a locally applicable form has been difficult. A major project of the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC), funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), drew on the work of an interdisciplinary team of scientists to help close the gap between theory and practical application in the arid southwestern U.S. Climate change in this region is predicted to be extreme,...
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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...
map background search result map search result map Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River Assessing Future Changes to Spring Phenology and False Springs in the South Central United States Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds Understanding Impacts on Southeastern Grasslands from Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Invasive Species Examining How Ridge-to-Reef Governance in Palau Can Enhance Coastal Food Security in a Changing Climate Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge Promoting Peer-to-Peer Knowledge Exchange on Climate and Fire Adaptation in the Southwestern United States Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Examining How Ridge-to-Reef Governance in Palau Can Enhance Coastal Food Security in a Changing Climate Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Promoting Peer-to-Peer Knowledge Exchange on Climate and Fire Adaptation in the Southwestern United States The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Understanding Impacts on Southeastern Grasslands from Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Invasive Species Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Assessing Future Changes to Spring Phenology and False Springs in the South Central United States Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions