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This project identifies opportunities to manage flows, connections, and landscapes to increase the resilience of human communities and ecosystems. This research identifies dynamic and adaptive solutions to managing river flows that allow continued provision of valuable infrastructure services such as flood control, hydropower, and water supply, while also supporting thriving river ecosystems - both today and into the future. The goals of the research were to: 1) Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic regimes, 2) Determine the flow regime changes that will be required to provide riverine environmental services and any risk associated with these changes, and 3) Explore management alternatives...
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Much of the biodiversity of the southeastern U.S. is found in grasslands, including meadows, prairies, glades, and savannas. These grasslands provide vital habitat to a variety of plants and animals, but many grassland types have undergone over 90% loss due to fire suppression and urban sprawl. The remaining grassland patches—remnants—now face emerging threats from invasive species and climate change. The project researchers recently convened a workshop with grassland managers and experts from across the Southeast, from Texas to West Virginia to Florida, to identify the most pressing science needs to effectively manage and restore grasslands over the coming decades. This project directly addresses those needs by...
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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Climate vulnerability assessments are tools that aid in understanding why specific resources are vulnerable to projected changes in climate. A recently developed online climate vulnerability assessment dashboard (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/) helps understand where vulnerability is projected to be greatest across watersheds in the Midwest United States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin). This Northeast CASC-funded dashboard was created for, and in cooperation with, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to be useful to various FWS programs in the Midwest. With its broad applicability in mind, the dashboard has high potential to support other groups struggling...
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On remote Pacific islands and outer atolls, agroforestry (i.e., the cultivation and conservation of trees for agriculture) provides food security and income to local communities. Growing instability from climate change and invasive species like the coconut rhinoceros beetle threaten these resources. Actively managing and sustaining agroforestry resources requires detailed and up-to-date knowledge of forest inventories and conditions. Project researchers will build capacity for conducting detailed agroforestry assessment and monitoring in Pacific Island nations, by using imagery collected from small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS or “drones”) and custom computer algorithms to automatically detect and monitor the...
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Stocking, or raising fish in hatcheries and releasing them into a body of water, is routinely used to supplement or maintain fisheries when natural populations are low or nonexistent. Demand for stocking cool and coldwater fish species that support important fisheries will likely increase as a result of climate change, but fish available for stocking are a limited resource. Consequently, climate change will likely affect supply-and-demand tradeoffs associated with stocking fish in the future, where demand for fish is likely to exceed supply. Researchers will examine supply-and-demand tradeoffs using walleye, which represent an ideal species for this assessment because they are a native coolwater species supporting...
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HawaiÊ»i is home to a rich diversity of native plants, about 90 percent of which are found nowhere else in the world. However, changing climate conditions may reduce the amount of suitable habitat for native plants and contribute to the spread of invasive plant species. The goal of this project was to better understand how Hawaiian native and invasive plants will respond to climate change. Scientists focused on 10 important native and five important invasive plant species, using over 35 years of data from thousands of locations in Hawai‘i to assess the plants’ preferred climate conditions and model their likely best future habitat based on climate change projections. The resulting maps and findings provide an initial...
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The Republic of Palau, a Freely Associated State of the U.S. and a global leader in ocean conservation, recently implemented the Palau National Marine Sanctuary, which closed 80% of its ocean to fishing. As offshore fish become scarcer in the domestic market, managers have begun to worry about increased harvesting pressure on already overfished nearshore environments. This pressure, in addition to stressors from land-use change, sea-level rise, and warming oceans, could threaten the food and economic security of many Palauans. However, adaptively managing stressors in an integrated way can mitigate declines and even promote recovery, while still being cost-effective, resulting in direct benefits to coastal communities....
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HawaiÊ»i is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. HawaiÊ¿i is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into carefully reintroducing thousands of rare plants into protected forests, but the ability of reintroduced populations to persist over the long-term is unknown, especially as climate change shifts patterns of temperature, rainfall and species interactions. Managers need more information to identify locations that will be the most suitable...
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HawaiÊ»i’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and malaria development. With rising temperatures in those upslope areas due to climate change, mosquitoes and disease are starting to be found at higher elevations. In addition to warming temperatures, increasingly dry conditions change stream flow allowing for the creation of pools that provide additional larval mosquito habitat in...
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Hawaiian forest birds play important roles in many ecological processes. For example, 61% of native flowering Hawaiian plant species are either bird pollinated or dispersed through ingestion by birds. However, native bird communities across Hawaiʻi continue to decline despite efforts to control predators and enhance habitat. These declines are, in part, due to the mosquito-borne avian pox and avian malaria. Scientific forecasts of the impact of avian disease on native bird populations under various climate change scenarios predict severe declines and species extinctions in all remaining forest habitat within the next 50 years. While little can currently be done to mitigate the effects of climate change on disease...
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Climate scientists need more and better information about the needs of decision-makers and managers, while decision-makers need better information about how a changing climate may affect their management and conservation objectives. The goal of this project was to build connections between the Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PPP-LCC), the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction and Projection Pilot Platform (NCPP) to facilitate a link between the users and producers of climate information, as well as to identify gaps between available and desired data. This project developed a conceptual model...
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Improving the quality of habitat for western big-game species, such as elk and mule deer, was identified as a priority by the Department of the Interior in 2018. Maintaining healthy herds not only supports the ecosystems where these species are found, but also the hunting and wildlife watching communities. For example, in Wyoming, big game hunting contributed over $300 million to the state’s economy in 2015. Yet as climate conditions change, the quantity, quality, and timing of vegetation available to mule deer, elk, and other ungulates, known as forage, could shift. It’s possible that these changes could have cascading impacts on the behavior and population sizes of many species. A key strategy used by managers...
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Changing climate conditions (e.g. changes to air temperature, surface temperature, snowpack duration, and soil temperature) are affecting where trees are able to successfully grow and are bringing changes to the structure of forests throughout many parts of Alaska. In order to understand and project future vegetation changes, scientists use computer models to establish the relationships between climate variables, such as those mentioned above, and ecological responses such as the presence or absence of a tree species, tree growth and establishment, changes in sap flow, and other demographic and physiological responses. These computer models, however, frequently do not account for Alaska’s extreme topography and...
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The City and Borough of Juneau, Alaska has the highest urban avalanche danger in the U.S., with regular impacts to people, property, critical infrastructure, and natural resources. Avalanche hazard zones occur over a large area extending from downtown Juneau to the Snettisham power plant 50 km to the south, the Kensington Mine 60 km to the north, and the Eaglecrest Ski area 6 km to the west. Developing a better understanding of avalanches and the processes leading to avalanche formation in the Juneau area is critical. This information would greatly aid local and regional efforts to forecast avalanches and update avalanche hazard maps, including the risk to transportation, utility, and mining corridors. An important...
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Water is a key resource in Alaska: Although it comprises 17 percent of the country’s land area, Alaska contains more than 40 percent of the United States’ surface water. Climate changes are anticipated to greatly impact water processes (hydrology), including water temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns and amounts. Understanding the likely impacts of climate change on hydrology is an important first step toward understanding consequent impacts on natural and human communities. The purpose of this project was to assist with the development of a coordinated state-wide approach for monitoring temperature in streams and lakes. This process was guided by the recommendations of a workshop involving hydrologists,...
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Project Overview Declining winter ice cover in the Great Lakes can affect how winds and waves influence coldwater fish reproduction on reefs, as ice cover may shield fish from these forces. Researchers supported by this Midwest CASC project will measure water movement and ice cover in Lake Erie to model future scenarios, helping fishery managers in the region make habitat restoration and fish stocking decisions for important species like lake whitefish and cisco. Project Summary In northern regions, freshwater lake surfaces commonly freeze during the winter, benefiting coldwater fishes. Ice cover protects developing fish eggs from strong wind-driven currents and surface waves, turbulence that can lower reproductive...
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Tribes and tribal lands in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains region are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and tribal managers are also already responding to and preparing for the impacts of those changes. However, these managers face many challenges and obstacles to either completing and/or implementing their adaptation plans. The overall goal of this project is to provide tribal managers in this region the opportunity to share experiences, challenges, and successes with each other in order to support climate adaptation efforts. The project researchers will plan and conduct a workshop for tribes in the north central region that are in some stage of climate adaptation planning or implementation....
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In the Great Plains, climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts, severe rainfall events, and heat waves. Adapting to changing conditions will require coordination in the research and observation capabilities of multiple organizations, institutions, and government programs. In light of these needs, researchers worked with federal, state, tribal, university, and non-governmental organization partners to (1) synthesize the current state of ecosystems in the Great Plains; (2) assess the ability of human and ecological communities in the region to adapt to climate change; and (3) develop a process to improve future assessments of the vulnerability of the region’s natural and cultural resources...
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The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most critical breeding habitats for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. This current conservation approach assumes that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions, however, due to changes in the area’s hydrology this may not be the case. Understanding how climate change may impact these wetland and grassland ecosystems is key for management...
map background search result map search result map Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Bringing Together Scientists and Resource Managers to Assess Science Needs and Address Questions Related to Conservation in a Changing Climate Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Science to Inform the Reconnection of Floodplains and Restoration of Green Space to Minimize Risk in the Future Observing and Understanding the Impacts of Climate on Alaskan Forests Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region From Public Hazard to Key Drivers of Landscape Change: Understanding the Role of Avalanches in Southeast Alaska Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region Understanding Impacts on Southeastern Grasslands from Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Invasive Species Supply-and-Demand Dynamics Associated with Using Stocking to Maintain Walleye Fisheries in the Face of Climate Change Examining How Ridge-to-Reef Governance in Palau Can Enhance Coastal Food Security in a Changing Climate Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge Using High-Resolution Imagery and Artificial Intelligence to Support Climate Change Resilience in Agroforestry Across the Pacific Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to Support Regional Climate Adaptation Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants Does Less Ice Cover Lead to More Turbulent Overwinter Conditions on Great Lakes Fish Spawning Reefs? Examining How Ridge-to-Reef Governance in Palau Can Enhance Coastal Food Security in a Changing Climate Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge From Public Hazard to Key Drivers of Landscape Change: Understanding the Role of Avalanches in Southeast Alaska Does Less Ice Cover Lead to More Turbulent Overwinter Conditions on Great Lakes Fish Spawning Reefs? Science to Inform the Reconnection of Floodplains and Restoration of Green Space to Minimize Risk in the Future Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants Bringing Together Scientists and Resource Managers to Assess Science Needs and Address Questions Related to Conservation in a Changing Climate Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Using High-Resolution Imagery and Artificial Intelligence to Support Climate Change Resilience in Agroforestry Across the Pacific Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to Support Regional Climate Adaptation Understanding Impacts on Southeastern Grasslands from Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Invasive Species Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Supply-and-Demand Dynamics Associated with Using Stocking to Maintain Walleye Fisheries in the Face of Climate Change The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region Observing and Understanding the Impacts of Climate on Alaskan Forests Monitoring Alaska Stream and Lake Temperatures to Understand Future Conditions