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The capacity of ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, clean water, and forest products is determined not only by variations in ecosystem properties across landscapes, but also by ecosystem dynamics over time. ForWarn is a system developed by the U.S. Forest Service to monitor vegetation change using satellite imagery for the continental United States. It provides near real-time change maps that are updated every eight days, and summaries of these data also provide long-term change maps from 2000 to the present. Based on the detection of change in vegetation productivity, the ForWarn system monitors the effects of disturbances such as wildfires, insects, diseases, drought, and other effects of weather,...
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WaSSI (Water Supply Stress Index) predicts how climate, land cover, and human population change may impact water availability and carbon sequestration at the watershed level (about the size of a county) across the lower 48 United States. WaSSI users can select and adjust temperature, precipitation, land cover, and water use factors to simulate change scenarios for any timeframe from 1961 through the year 2100. Simulation results are available as downloadable maps, graphs, and data files that users can apply to their unique information and project needs. WaSSI generates useful information for natural resource planners and managers who must make informed decisions about water supplies and related ecosystem services...
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This project identifies priority areas in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion to implement conservation strategies for riverine and riparian habitat. This is tailored towards the Arid Lands Initiative (ALI) conservation goals and objectives, and provides the foundation for adaptation to a changing climate. This project adopts a “zoned” approach to identifying focal areas, connectivity management zones and zones for riparian habitat and ecological representation. Through a series of workshops and webinars, the ALI articulated its freshwater conservation goals and targets. Key aspects of these goals included: a focus on non-anadromous salmonid (salmon and steelhead) species, include riparian birds and waterfowl as key...
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In 2006, the Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida called for an identification of those lands and waters in the state that are critical to the conservation of Florida’s natural resources. In response, the Florida Natural Areas Inventory, University of Florida Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, and Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission collaborated to produce CLIP - the Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project. CLIP is a GIS database of statewide conservation priorities for a broad range of natural resources, including biodiversity, landscape function, surface water, groundwater, and marine resources. CLIP is now being used to inform planning decisions by the Peninsular Florida...
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Our objective was to model specific minimum flow (mean of the annual minimum flows divided by drainage area [cubic feet per second per square mile]) on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Modeling streamflows is an important tool for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no gaged records. We focused our study in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a region that is not only critical for water resources but also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drier climate. We used a random forest modeling approach to model the relation between specific minimum flow on gaged streams (115 gages) and environmental variables. We then projected...
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Our objective was to model specific mean daily flow (mean daily flow divided by drainage area [cubic feet per second per square mile]) on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Modeling streamflows is an important tool for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no gaged records. We focused our study in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a region that is not only critical for water resources but also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drier climate.We used a random forest modeling approach to model the relation between specific mean daily flow on gaged streams (115 gages) and environmental variables. We then projected specific mean...
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This data product contains estimates of habitat quality for black bear. The analysis area was a 236,000 square kilometers that encompassed the Navajo Nation, which includes portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The estimates of habitat quality were created with spatially explicit habitat variables and either an expert-based linear combination process (for mountain lion and mule deer) or a generalized linear mixed model-based estimation that used radio-collar telemetry data (for desert bighorn sheep, black bear, and pronghorn; collected between 2005-2011). Habitat variables varied among species but included vegetation type, terrain ruggedness, topographic position index (TPI), road density, distance to water,...
Meadows delineated in the Sierra Nevada wth refugial status and connectivity rankings–WellConnected (WC), ReallyWellConnected (RC), Stable. Satisfies the delivery of “Sierra Nevada Connectivity Maps” and “Sierra Nevada Meadows Map”. Maps of the Sierra Nevada Meadows designated by their connectivity classification and whether they are expected to have a climate different than historic (1910-1939). We generated maps for modern climate (1970-1999) and four future climate scenarios, broken down into 30 year intervals, in which we assumed connectivity would not change because resistance and conductance surfaces were static. Data for the map are polygon shapefiles of meadows, processed first by buffer and dissolve in...
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change, resulting in rapid changes in status. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a rapid assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge is needed to assess current status and future vulnerability. In this study, we present a method that allows systematic evaluation of potential climate change effects on freshwater fishes, using California as an example. The method uses expert knowledge of the authors, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future...
Adaptation Planning Workshop #1:We convened a two-day workshop with scientists, managers, conservation practitioners, and others to use the findings of the vulnerability assessment to inform the development of climate-smart adaptation strategies and actions to conserve priority habitats. Specifically, we used the results of the vulnerability assessment to evaluate whether existing management actions may be vulnerable to climate change, and identify opportunities to modify existing actions to reduce vulnerabilities and become more climate-smart. We then focused on identifying climate-smart conservation strategies and actions that are not currently being implemented, but should be considered in order to conserve priority...
Kristin Byrd presented how this project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and will quantify two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents will develop integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminate information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (CRCC) study area, which includes the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
This insert into the February 2013 Estuary news offers snapshots of how seven CA LCC projects have been laying the foundations for lasting cooperative conservation partnerships.
Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Symposium Poster
Tracking Climate Change in Hawai’i: Status and Prospects GIS data
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
Website: “Climate Change Refugia” website features a dynamic, interactive refugia map and all deliverables
Local Ecological Knowledge and Climate Change Portal housing all of the data and products produced from this project.
Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean GIS Data
map background search result map search result map Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Black Bear Habitat Quality Predicted specific mean daily flow Predicted specific minimum flow WASSI Future Change in Water Supply Stress Index 1991-2010 ForWarn Mean Summer National Difference Vegetation Index 2009-2013 Florida Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project 4 0 Selection frequency score Figure(6) Black Bear Habitat Quality Selection frequency score Figure(6) Florida Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project 4 0 Predicted specific mean daily flow Predicted specific minimum flow Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change WASSI Future Change in Water Supply Stress Index 1991-2010 ForWarn Mean Summer National Difference Vegetation Index 2009-2013