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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Southeast CASC > FY 2018 Projects ( Show all descendants )

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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
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The pine rockland ecosystem is found only in south Florida and the Bahamas and provides important habitat for numerous rare and endemic plants and animals. These include 18 species that are already federally listed as threatened or endangered and four other species petitioned for listing that are scheduled for development of Species Status Assessments (SSAs). Today, south Florida’s pine rockland ecosystem represents less than 3 percent of its original extent. Threats such as saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise pose the greatest risk to the longevity of this ecosystem. For the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to make decisions about the potential listing of a species, they must be able to forecast...
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Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is experiencing particularly rapid population growth, as a favorable winter climate has drawn millions to the region from other areas of the country over the past several decades. However, the Southeast is also at risk from the effects of climate change, particularly along its vast coastline, where over a quarter of the region’s population...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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Information about streamflow and streamflow variability is critical to assist natural resource managers when they make decisions related to the water needs of both human communities and ecosystems. In order for managers to effectively plan for and adapt to future climate and land cover conditions, they require information on changes that could occur in the distribution and quantity of water resources. Yet every watershed has a unique set of characteristics – such as differing topographies and geology – that affect how much water is available, the sources of water, and how it flows through the system. This means that water availability in every watershed can be affected differently by changes in climate and land...
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Ecosystem services, or the benefits that natural ecosystems provide to people, are inherently spatial, tied to the specific ecosystems that create them. Mapping where ecosystem services are abundant or in short supply and identifying what lands provide certain services is useful for a variety of purposes, including land-use planning, assessment of conservation and restoration priorities, and identification of environmental justice issues. This project maps current ecosystem services, potential for future changes, and opportunity areas for management actions to enhance or protect ecosystem services for the southeastern United States. Data from publicly available, national-scale sources was used wherever possible...
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Urbanization in the Southeast U.S. is among the fastest in the nation, and represents a primary threat to threatened and endangered species. As urbanized areas expand, they are encroaching on preserved areas, like national wildlife refuges, and are dividing forests into smaller fragments. Forests that are located next to cities and suburbs are exposed to high temperatures, pollution, insect pests, invasive plants, and other factors that threaten forest health. However, forests located within urban and suburban areas – “urban forests” are capable of supporting diverse plant and animal life, and could play an increasingly important role in conservation as urbanization continues. Little is currently known about how...
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Thousands of plant and animal species are culturally important to the Indigenous peoples of North America. Global change is leading to major shifts in the abundance, distribution, and life history of these species, with concomitant effects on their value to the peoples for whom they are most culturally important. While a number of studies have begun to explore the futures of culturally significant species, these studies typically do so in isolation, focusing on individual plant species and single future scenarios, and involve little engagement with the people for whom such species are most important. This project seeks to fill this gap by examining the future of culturally important species as climate conditions...
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Changing climate conditions could have significant impacts on wildlife health. Shifts in temperature and precipitation may directly affect the occurrence of disease in fish and wildlife by altering their interactions with pathogens (such as the bacterium that causes Lyme disease), helping vectors like mosquitoes and ticks expand their range, or speeding up the time it takes for a parasite to develop from an egg to an adult. Climate change can also indirectly affect the health of fish and wildlife as their habitats change. For example, reduced food availability could lead to overcrowding and increased disease transmission, or warmer temperatures might increase stress levels, weakening immune systems and making animals...
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Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers will work with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop fact sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100, and the potential impacts of these varying amounts of sea-level rise on the missions of national wildlife refuge and national park lands along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Researchers will draw from existing...
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The North Carolina Natural and Working Lands Action Plan, part of the North Carolina Climate Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan, was created in response to Executive Order 80 to identify opportunities for North Carolina’s natural and working lands (NWL), including farms, forests, and wetlands, to sequester carbon, support ecosystem and community resilience, and enhance the state’s economy. In collaboration with the North Carolina’s Natural and Working Lands stakeholder group, the Nicholas Institute helped to develop maps and recommendations for the Natural and Working Lands Action Plan (PDF) related to managing lands in the state to enhance these benefits. Opportunity maps identified the geographic scope of many...
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Grasslands are plant communities that have few or no trees, or have open canopies that allow for the development of a grassy groundcover. Grasslands in the southeastern U.S. support rare plant and animal species and in some cases qualify as global or regional hotspots of biodiversity. Yet the Southeast’s grasslands have been reduced by approximately 90% since European settlement, as the result of agriculture, urbanization, and fire suppression. Today, climate change represents an additional stressor that may pose direct and indirect threats to grassland-related biodiversity. Additional knowledge is urgently needed to evaluate conservation options for species of conservation concern in southeastern U.S. grasslands,...
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Sea level rise is likely to be a major driver of coastal habitat change in the coming decades, and therefore influence the location and magnitude of ecosystem services provided by coastal habitats. We used a spatial model to map coastal habitat changes due to sea level rise in six mid-Atlantic states, including North Carolina, and translate habitat changes into effects on net carbon flux from the coastal zone.
    map background search result map search result map Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies Clarifying Science Needs for Southeastern Grasslands The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S. for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Communicating Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuge and National Park Lands Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast Ecosystem Services Mapping Datasets Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Blue Carbon Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Blue Carbon Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Communicating Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuge and National Park Lands Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Services Mapping Datasets Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S. for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Clarifying Science Needs for Southeastern Grasslands The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies